{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87d35506-649d-4d85-b81c-3d426f19adab", "symbol": "2160", "name": "The Saudi Arabian Amiantit Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.286, "architecture_energy": 74.039, "architecture_maturity": 27.956, "architecture_confidence": 87.948, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.24, "rotation_up": 10.43, "upward_expansion": 17.27, "deceleration": 37.24, "rotation_down": 71.39, "downward_expansion": 90.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.535333, 12.912, 13.416, 13.637333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.62, "trend_reference": 14.013667, "distance_from_trend": -0.099451, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.429273, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.539908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.311021, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150168, "excess_performance": -0.118339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.099451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088325, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.539908, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050542, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150168, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1647780, "relative_activity": 0.783507, "balance": 0.688012, "dry_up": 0.536122, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060953, "annualized_volatility": 0.308359, "from_high_reference": -0.441098, "from_low_reference": 0.061396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.013667, "fair_value_reference": 27.429273, "structural_low": 11.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.022552, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.013778, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.467327, "worst_return": -0.278689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.094541, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.063754, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.233236, "worst_return": -0.403706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.274074, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.154905, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.147897, "worst_return": -0.396351, "sufficient": true 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.788397, "energy": 58.76059, "activity_lines": [ 13.052667, 13.257818, 13.71081, 13.876925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.05, "volume": 809503, "typical_volume": 2044987.2, "trend": 14.122667, "fair_value": 27.659593, "relative_strength": -22.786126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.161563, "energy": 80.645216, "activity_lines": [ 12.657333, 13.021091, 13.533952, 13.73428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.62, "volume": 1647780, "typical_volume": 2103083.5, "trend": 14.013667, "fair_value": 27.429273, "relative_strength": -20.311021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.285965, "energy": 74.03914, "activity_lines": [ 12.535333, 12.912, 13.416, 13.637333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }