{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87d47fe4-c07d-42e0-be3e-4e792c451058", "symbol": "ECJ", "name": "Ecolab Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.227, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.846, "architecture_energy": 28.976, "architecture_maturity": 31.169, "architecture_confidence": 61.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.52, "rotation_up": 48.76, "upward_expansion": 42.17, "deceleration": 50.14, "rotation_down": 25.89, "downward_expansion": 14.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 241.64, 240.944953, 236.21235, 235.850213 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 247.0, "trend_reference": 236.605827, "distance_from_trend": 0.04393, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 186.080057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327386, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.346633, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.016842, "excess_performance": -0.047798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04393, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018516, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043466, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096356, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016842, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.178862, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110, "relative_activity": 2.150538, "balance": 2.178862, "dry_up": 0.918866, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034812, "annualized_volatility": 0.24754, "from_high_reference": -0.059363, "from_low_reference": 0.456252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 236.605827, "fair_value_reference": 186.080057, "structural_low": 211.634572, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.059759, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046443, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07672, "worst_return": 0.042797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.062959, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.098037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079937, "worst_return": 0.045982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.276706, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138045, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.41599, "worst_return": 0.137423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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26.322588, "energy": 61.838034, "activity_lines": [ 242.466668, 237.108777, 233.872364, 234.830088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 235.699997, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 52.7, "trend": 235.519536, "fair_value": 185.133436, "relative_strength": 5.425702, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.704429, "energy": 36.320584, "activity_lines": [ 240.246666, 237.638035, 234.137051, 234.865983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 239.9, "volume": 47, "typical_volume": 47.3, "trend": 236.124906, "fair_value": 185.58399, "relative_strength": 4.605533, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.203676, "energy": 18.54951, "activity_lines": [ 239.5, 238.895748, 234.834174, 235.148594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 247.0, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 51.15, "trend": 236.605827, "fair_value": 186.080057, "relative_strength": 4.346633, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.845859, "energy": 28.976081, "activity_lines": [ 241.64, 240.944953, 236.21235, 235.850213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }