{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87da6707-0c22-43fa-9043-9a74a8821edb", "symbol": "USP3", "name": "WisdomTree Long USD Short GBP 3x Daily", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.528, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.076, "architecture_energy": 6.018, "architecture_maturity": 20.47, "architecture_confidence": 54.279, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.69, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 28.0, "deceleration": 71.57, "rotation_down": 43.69, "downward_expansion": 27.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 5731.833333, 5789.000007, 5771.428592, 5760.086038 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5667.5, "trend_reference": 5734.333343, "distance_from_trend": -0.011655, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6320.935837, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.103376, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.117242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017504, "excess_performance": -0.057194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011655, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009423, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.103376, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012464, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.497609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 373, "relative_activity": 0.128579, "balance": 1.497609, "dry_up": 0.44563, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065778, "annualized_volatility": 0.196044, "from_high_reference": -0.103244, "from_low_reference": 0.492757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5734.333343, "fair_value_reference": 6320.935837, "structural_low": 3796.6667, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.019085, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012559, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.102085, "worst_return": -0.086045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014444, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.052876, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.076541, "worst_return": -0.112239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053642, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.052091, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.053401, "worst_return": -0.086962, 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0.0263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00354, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022305, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007443, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 6486.0, "volume": 622, "typical_volume": 290.9, "trend": 6999.216667, "fair_value": 6564.285256, "relative_strength": -15.704227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.844554, "energy": 63.3178, "activity_lines": [ 5918.666693, 5819.045478, 5785.583363, 5758.274214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5765.0, "volume": 18, "typical_volume": 2992.6, "trend": 5741.916677, "fair_value": 6334.560837, "relative_strength": -6.233681, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.606778, "energy": 53.607443, "activity_lines": [ 5887.83336, 5823.363651, 5786.571457, 5759.258084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5720.0, "volume": 235, "typical_volume": 2993.8, "trend": 5736.583343, "fair_value": 6330.246734, "relative_strength": -7.630127, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.962452, "energy": 22.976158, "activity_lines": [ 5840.000013, 5816.181825, 5782.10717, 5757.844105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5865.0, "volume": 2965, "typical_volume": 2954.5, "trend": 5737.416677, "fair_value": 6329.493529, "relative_strength": -6.225677, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.425557, "energy": 20.986088, "activity_lines": [ 5838.500013, 5834.136367, 5790.404787, 5766.12905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5710.0, "volume": 1598, "typical_volume": 2934.8, "trend": 5733.75001, "fair_value": 6325.330068, "relative_strength": -9.487758, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.370985, "energy": 12.955672, "activity_lines": [ 5782.166673, 5817.318185, 5782.964309, 5764.360232 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5667.5, "volume": 373, "typical_volume": 2900.95, "trend": 5734.333343, "fair_value": 6320.935837, "relative_strength": -10.117242, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.0756, "energy": 6.018272, "activity_lines": [ 5731.833333, 5789.000007, 5771.428592, 5760.086038 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }