{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87e3f85f-9d95-41e6-b373-ff626e1af2c9", "symbol": "002240", "name": "Chengxin Lithium Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.959, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.89, "architecture_energy": 82.538, "architecture_maturity": 26.048, "architecture_confidence": 83.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.48, "rotation_up": 8.35, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 79.11, "downward_expansion": 95.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.995333, 34.013818, 40.00719, 41.169376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.049999, "trend_reference": 41.386667, "distance_from_trend": -0.225596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.551339, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.421202, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.757282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098453, "excess_performance": -0.105853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047711, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.421202, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.214395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.863671, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.133955, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212213651, "relative_activity": 0.938033, "balance": 0.133955, "dry_up": 1.074752, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18872, "annualized_volatility": 0.789012, "from_high_reference": -0.492317, "from_low_reference": 1.093403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.386667, "fair_value_reference": 22.551339, "structural_low": 24.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04349, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.002117, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.266978, "worst_return": -0.134181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.122161, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.09693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.011579, "worst_return": -0.152481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.238841, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.1566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265119, "worst_return": -0.228004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.295499, "energy": 34.042499, "activity_lines": [ 40.567332, 43.488727, 45.654952, 44.358645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.879999, "volume": 223639226, "typical_volume": 216626841.6, "trend": 41.864, "fair_value": 22.544772, "relative_strength": -11.725085, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.117104, "energy": 65.425004, "activity_lines": [ 35.835999, 40.338545, 44.106619, 43.51858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.459999, "volume": 291755560, "typical_volume": 222061390.6, "trend": 41.702666, "fair_value": 22.533063, "relative_strength": -13.95406, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.63531, "energy": 73.944348, "activity_lines": [ 32.444665, 37.632726, 42.583666, 42.653806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.110001, "volume": 244967104, "typical_volume": 225604432.85, "trend": 41.466, "fair_value": 22.521006, "relative_strength": -14.191333, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.538618, "energy": 78.097075, "activity_lines": [ 30.088666, 35.274181, 41.078619, 41.77686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.049999, "volume": 212213651, "typical_volume": 226232632.05, "trend": 41.386667, "fair_value": 22.551339, "relative_strength": -7.757282, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.889587, "energy": 82.537605, "activity_lines": [ 29.995333, 34.013818, 40.00719, 41.169376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }