{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87e54b4e-3f90-4515-b4bc-419b8bdfee95", "symbol": "ANAE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF EUR H Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.83, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.986, "architecture_energy": 31.146, "architecture_maturity": 68.201, "architecture_confidence": 83.476, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.37, "rotation_up": 28.95, "upward_expansion": 58.82, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 32.52, "downward_expansion": 20.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.99, 14.111818, 14.069838, 13.680916 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.4, "trend_reference": 13.2108, "distance_from_trend": 0.090017, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.688245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.106727, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.18246, "excess_performance": 0.011568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090017, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048804, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232007, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.18246, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.554906, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88400, "relative_activity": 2.870279, "balance": 3.554906, "dry_up": 1.417501, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031688, "annualized_volatility": 0.208896, "from_high_reference": -0.023199, "from_low_reference": 0.275239 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.2108, "fair_value_reference": 11.688245, "structural_low": 11.292, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021546, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046968, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 10.1052, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 10.1294, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 10.1406, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 9.9746, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 10.282, "volume": 4176, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": 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"fair_value": 11.591864, "relative_strength": -1.245194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.349995, "energy": 60.09694, "activity_lines": [ 14.4228, 14.405891, 13.897314, 13.469548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.858, "volume": 253, "typical_volume": 26082.6, "trend": 13.067333, "fair_value": 11.616231, "relative_strength": -3.786175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.192577, "energy": 42.379756, "activity_lines": [ 14.226933, 14.311673, 13.947781, 13.523695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.754, "volume": 7256, "typical_volume": 26410.05, "trend": 13.1084, "fair_value": 11.638973, "relative_strength": -4.251186, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.913618, "energy": 30.676623, "activity_lines": [ 14.034933, 14.204218, 13.980533, 13.567996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.608, "volume": 78718, "typical_volume": 26883.55, "trend": 13.149333, "fair_value": 11.6597, "relative_strength": -5.802537, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.713677, "energy": 27.459397, "activity_lines": [ 13.860133, 14.0788, 13.991486, 13.600228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.4, "volume": 88400, "typical_volume": 30798.4, "trend": 13.2108, "fair_value": 11.688245, "relative_strength": -3.106727, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.985868, "energy": 31.146371, "activity_lines": [ 13.99, 14.111818, 14.069838, 13.680916 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }