{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "87e81071-67b5-4b26-b269-8da9da7b07d5",
    "symbol": "PDEC",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - December",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 59.001,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.633,
    "architecture_energy": 75.859,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.806,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.047,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.45,
        "rotation_up": 65.26,
        "upward_expansion": 90.16,
        "deceleration": 50.04,
        "rotation_down": 25.31,
        "downward_expansion": 14.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        46.31812,
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        45.757042,
        45.2098
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      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 46.8092,
    "trend_reference": 44.58636,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.049855,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 39.20049,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.194097,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.351463,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.070904,
    "excess_performance": -0.054721,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049855,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021963,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.194097,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004933,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043515,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00113,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.070904,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.821261,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 66790,
      "relative_activity": 0.356878,
      "balance": 2.821261,
      "dry_up": 0.579387,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.010387,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.071046,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000231,
      "from_low_reference": 0.154642
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 44.58636,
      "fair_value_reference": 39.20049,
      "structural_low": 41.65,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 47,
        "median_return": 0.007596,
        "positive_rate": 0.723404,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.723404,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005862,
        "regime_survival": 0.893617,
        "best_return": 0.043146,
        "worst_return": -0.033985,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
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        "positive_rate": 0.8125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8125,
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        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.021538,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": -0.030685,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.072747,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.044608,
        "sufficient": false
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007234,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "typical_volume": 309104.55,
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        "fair_value": 37.953312,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": -3.101094,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 195872.2,
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        "relative_strength": -4.950718,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "fair_value": 38.472735,
        "relative_strength": -3.376474,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 192907.75,
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        "relative_strength": -3.508245,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 64.821551,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "direction": 61.420952,
        "energy": 54.843982,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 210077.45,
        "trend": 44.12479,
        "fair_value": 38.797749,
        "relative_strength": -3.147476,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 207198.45,
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        "fair_value": 38.878519,
        "relative_strength": -3.700091,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.121057,
        "energy": 75.273995,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 217961,
        "typical_volume": 211940.15,
        "trend": 44.31372,
        "fair_value": 38.956935,
        "relative_strength": -2.555953,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.978085,
        "energy": 74.730837,
        "activity_lines": [
          45.951707,
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          45.329331,
          44.839926
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 45.88,
        "volume": 97041,
        "typical_volume": 211334.25,
        "trend": 44.38872,
        "fair_value": 39.032963,
        "relative_strength": -2.123408,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.260081,
        "energy": 71.444406,
        "activity_lines": [
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          45.445419,
          44.940976
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 46.23,
        "volume": 51939,
        "typical_volume": 208613.5,
        "trend": 44.48372,
        "fair_value": 39.114662,
        "relative_strength": -2.344751,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.629934,
        "energy": 70.651085,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.060827,
          45.934735,
          45.581935,
          45.059769
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 46.8092,
        "volume": 66790,
        "typical_volume": 187150.95,
        "trend": 44.58636,
        "fair_value": 39.20049,
        "relative_strength": -4.351463,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.632893,
        "energy": 75.859009,
        "activity_lines": [
          46.31812,
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          45.757042,
          45.2098
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}