{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87f9a105-e8b9-4942-ba4f-a775f5f55f9d", "symbol": "QVMM", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P MIDCAP 400 QVM MULTI FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.716, "architecture_energy": 56.028, "architecture_maturity": 61.333, "architecture_confidence": 66.011, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.58, "rotation_up": 53.11, "upward_expansion": 79.09, "deceleration": 69.09, "rotation_down": 25.83, "downward_expansion": 8.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.729733, 35.590919, 35.122435, 34.523138 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 36.4088, "trend_reference": 33.828587, "distance_from_trend": 0.076273, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.448609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27981, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.523033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088703, "excess_performance": -0.036922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076273, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049181, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27981, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00523, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002108, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088703, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.582971, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3315, "relative_activity": 0.385364, "balance": 1.582971, "dry_up": 0.43137, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022358, "annualized_volatility": 0.131215, "from_high_reference": -0.007935, "from_low_reference": 0.271761 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.828587, "fair_value_reference": 28.448609, "structural_low": 30.8414, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.010973, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.00845, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.078283, "worst_return": -0.111732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.041408, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.014673, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.132641, "worst_return": -0.109453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09295, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.038145, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.16271, "worst_return": 0.022423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 4521, "typical_volume": 9097.9, "trend": 33.68359, "fair_value": 28.366533, "relative_strength": 1.073824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.539441, "energy": 43.693595, "activity_lines": [ 35.39594, 35.385877, 34.91617, 34.347318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.4088, "volume": 3315, "typical_volume": 8602.25, "trend": 33.828587, "fair_value": 28.448609, "relative_strength": 0.523033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.715686, "energy": 56.027827, "activity_lines": [ 35.729733, 35.590919, 35.122435, 34.523138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }