{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87fa945c-4fec-4d3c-878a-6b1982876d78", "symbol": "AASI", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Em Asia UCITS ETF-C EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.679, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.923, "architecture_energy": 25.39, "architecture_maturity": 65.595, "architecture_confidence": 78.73, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.69, "rotation_up": 17.84, "upward_expansion": 52.4, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.99, "downward_expansion": 18.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.880666, 57.074, 56.909238, 55.323065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 56.299999, "trend_reference": 53.241833, "distance_from_trend": 0.057439, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.341987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.498501, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.157127, "excess_performance": -0.013765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057439, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014985, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157127, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606687, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92598, "relative_activity": 1.468672, "balance": 0.606687, "dry_up": 2.120362, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049952, "annualized_volatility": 0.252863, "from_high_reference": -0.094127, "from_low_reference": 0.393564 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.241833, "fair_value_reference": 40.341987, "structural_low": 45.599998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.023097, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.007961, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.156874, "worst_return": -0.037792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.064667, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.030873, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279784, "worst_return": -0.011447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.067143, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.049574, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.272, "worst_return": -0.014652, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.916651, "energy": 60.389095, "activity_lines": [ 59.532, 59.038364, 56.502786, 54.524204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.950001, "volume": 223638, "typical_volume": 58500.35, "trend": 52.279667, "fair_value": 39.894776, "relative_strength": -0.062654, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.291611, "energy": 36.167948, "activity_lines": [ 57.951334, 58.399637, 56.587095, 54.719258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.810001, "volume": 93952, "typical_volume": 60154.15, "trend": 52.660167, "fair_value": 40.038526, "relative_strength": 1.50206, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.992623, "energy": 24.305301, "activity_lines": [ 56.918667, 57.957273, 56.736072, 54.947022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.139999, "volume": 124557, "typical_volume": 60259.0, "trend": 52.951167, "fair_value": 40.18359, "relative_strength": -0.532435, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.747901, "energy": 25.235831, "activity_lines": [ 56.066, 57.395091, 56.783619, 55.107011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.299999, "volume": 92598, "typical_volume": 63048.8, "trend": 53.241833, "fair_value": 40.341987, "relative_strength": -1.498501, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.922857, "energy": 25.389903, "activity_lines": [ 55.880666, 57.074, 56.909238, 55.323065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }