{ "ticker": { "uuid": "87fedc1a-215e-47a4-90f4-ae41d994ccad", "symbol": "MTF-F39", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) S&P Aerospace & Defense Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.914, "architecture_energy": 67.549, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.856, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 56.03, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.321333, 55.761273, 1202.777952, 2271.180366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 57.37, "trend_reference": 3543.778333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3527.983013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.983739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.751898, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989297, "excess_performance": -1.018197, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314462, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.983739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.455311, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.829121, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989297, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.198649, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24885, "relative_activity": 0.708216, "balance": 1.198649, "dry_up": 1.033686, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.506483, "annualized_volatility": 6.243362, "from_high_reference": -0.990595, "from_low_reference": 0.101363 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3543.778333, "fair_value_reference": 3527.983013, "structural_low": 52.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003915, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.019274, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.151196, "worst_return": -0.094257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038298, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.023201, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.132466, "worst_return": -0.04351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.029505, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198293, "worst_return": 0.005162, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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35441, "typical_volume": 35090.35, "trend": 3727.866, "fair_value": 3544.69859, "relative_strength": -98.857081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.471658, "energy": 68.450546, "activity_lines": [ 54.63, 55.584545, 1458.033095, 2507.986559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.37, "volume": 24885, "typical_volume": 35137.6, "trend": 3543.778333, "fair_value": 3527.983013, "relative_strength": -98.751898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.914236, "energy": 67.548617, "activity_lines": [ 55.321333, 55.761273, 1202.777952, 2271.180366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }