{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8803d47b-8799-4595-a90b-e8cca2f22b2d", "symbol": "LILY34", "name": "Eli Lilly and Company", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.812, "architecture_energy": 36.283, "architecture_maturity": 54.061, "architecture_confidence": 66.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.06, "rotation_up": 38.11, "upward_expansion": 64.64, "deceleration": 68.07, "rotation_down": 25.66, "downward_expansion": 16.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 199.583334, 200.272546, 190.666633, 184.16653 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 202.080002, "trend_reference": 179.332275, "distance_from_trend": 0.126847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.411816, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.361617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.96854, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103273, "excess_performance": 0.160322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126847, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.361617, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.139685, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.303993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.87805, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 282535, "relative_activity": 3.591219, "balance": 2.87805, "dry_up": 1.719701, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067155, "annualized_volatility": 0.30694, "from_high_reference": -0.05777, "from_low_reference": 0.782808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 179.332275, "fair_value_reference": 148.411816, "structural_low": 141.825178, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.013509, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.005534, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.158652, "worst_return": -0.139194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.102104, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.15789, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.370004, "worst_return": -0.157165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.115765, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.078722, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.611411, "worst_return": -0.055186, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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184.232518, 180.1999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 201.899994, "volume": 78659, "typical_volume": 68106.45, "trend": 178.874597, "fair_value": 146.888479, "relative_strength": 13.657209, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.751435, "energy": 56.782921, "activity_lines": [ 202.702, 199.759272, 186.751034, 181.690088 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 194.1, "volume": 58514, "typical_volume": 66966.4, "trend": 178.920555, "fair_value": 147.674609, "relative_strength": 6.764202, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.64449, "energy": 40.006048, "activity_lines": [ 199.322666, 199.438363, 188.383722, 182.672372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.080002, "volume": 282535, "typical_volume": 78673.85, "trend": 179.332275, "fair_value": 148.411816, "relative_strength": 13.96854, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.812261, "energy": 36.282837, "activity_lines": [ 199.583334, 200.272546, 190.666633, 184.16653 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }