{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88062f66-7f70-4cb4-b3da-0475fcd4fcc9", "symbol": "ISAE", "name": "iShares V PLC - iShares Agribusiness UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.177, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.612, "architecture_energy": 16.89, "architecture_maturity": 21.061, "architecture_confidence": 58.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.13, "rotation_up": 47.49, "upward_expansion": 31.97, "deceleration": 44.94, "rotation_down": 23.82, "downward_expansion": 22.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.909667, 48.682546, 48.821519, 49.039821 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 48.025002, "trend_reference": 48.989137, "distance_from_trend": -0.019681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.170657, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112445, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.627434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001509, "excess_performance": -0.118172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112445, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112817, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001509, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964173, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41502, "relative_activity": 1.18161, "balance": 0.964173, "dry_up": 1.645505, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022512, "annualized_volatility": 0.160624, "from_high_reference": -0.085586, "from_low_reference": 0.15047 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.989137, "fair_value_reference": 43.170657, "structural_low": 47.139999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009363, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.087043, "worst_return": -0.08332, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007031, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013679, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11474, "worst_return": -0.093135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00399, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197214, "worst_return": -0.100982, "sufficient": false }, 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077894, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005184, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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49.018355, 49.461609, 48.836224 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 47.215, "volume": 2702, "typical_volume": 32634.55, "trend": 47.681443, "fair_value": 42.950815, "relative_strength": -6.835956, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.998762, "energy": 34.194333, "activity_lines": [ 48.031001, 48.633221, 49.247953, 48.816576 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 47.950001, "volume": 8995, "typical_volume": 31464.95, "trend": 47.84399, "fair_value": 42.984338, "relative_strength": -3.833566, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.496195, "energy": 39.41829, "activity_lines": [ 47.906001, 48.448886, 49.10232, 48.833902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.125, "volume": 2345, "typical_volume": 30295.6, "trend": 48.01482, "fair_value": 43.018094, "relative_strength": -5.402094, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.725729, "energy": 44.576603, "activity_lines": [ 47.908001, 48.316955, 48.974057, 48.852032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 48.349998, "volume": 24335, "typical_volume": 30650.45, "trend": 48.18677, "fair_value": 43.05689, "relative_strength": -5.008346, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.72365, "energy": 35.573209, "activity_lines": [ 48.026, 48.244727, 48.872817, 48.873656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.57, "volume": 34173, "typical_volume": 31689.35, "trend": 48.41024, "fair_value": 43.091972, "relative_strength": -3.276891, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.388099, "energy": 13.55296, "activity_lines": [ 48.582666, 48.429091, 48.894883, 48.962897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.41, "volume": 67559, "typical_volume": 33347.1, "trend": 48.674143, "fair_value": 43.126228, "relative_strength": -1.450085, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.393418, "energy": 32.412435, "activity_lines": [ 49.305333, 48.764909, 48.999079, 49.091914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.700001, "volume": 87948, "typical_volume": 35741.3, "trend": 48.858303, "fair_value": 43.148795, "relative_strength": -5.451068, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.390504, "energy": 17.537112, "activity_lines": [ 49.245, 48.782546, 48.935991, 49.093582 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.025002, "volume": 41502, "typical_volume": 35123.25, "trend": 48.989137, "fair_value": 43.170657, "relative_strength": -7.627434, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.611957, "energy": 16.889629, "activity_lines": [ 48.909667, 48.682546, 48.821519, 49.039821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }