{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "880776f8-7c69-4d1a-b39c-45243f08d380",
    "symbol": "300499",
    "name": "Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech. Co., Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHZ",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 61.048,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -36.814,
    "architecture_energy": 66.525,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.862,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.037,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.01,
        "rotation_up": 16.31,
        "upward_expansion": 23.29,
        "deceleration": 43.03,
        "rotation_down": 70.41,
        "downward_expansion": 62.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        28.17,
        31.449454,
        34.958194,
        35.766542
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 29.1,
    "trend_reference": 35.739637,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.185778,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 20.731533,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.403659,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.426565,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.024648,
    "excess_performance": 0.017248,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.185778,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.056709,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.403659,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.858835,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.134266,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.418872,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.024648,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.826034,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 98835823,
      "relative_activity": 0.769453,
      "balance": 0.826034,
      "dry_up": 0.836841,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.192246,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.794358,
      "from_high_reference": -0.393172,
      "from_low_reference": 0.496914
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 35.739637,
      "fair_value_reference": 20.731533,
      "structural_low": 23.200001,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.091571,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.129423,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.10134,
        "worst_return": -0.049855,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.057508,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.056638,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.236994,
        "worst_return": -0.239531,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.087102,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.147974,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.4164,
        "worst_return": -0.187139,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.072088,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.103759,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.134003,
        "worst_return": -0.278179,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.307094,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.208049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.084412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.348624,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.17565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.04411,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.131907,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.086433,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.202425,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.134328,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.121345,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.232658,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.21776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.077379,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-07-28",
        "close": 14.27,
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        "typical_volume": 210004322.85,
        "trend": 15.563612,
        "fair_value": 12.20754,
        "relative_strength": 6.995995,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 153561299.85,
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        "relative_strength": -10.595589,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.217968,
        "energy": 30.799085,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.01,
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        "typical_volume": 145764843.8,
        "trend": 35.979637,
        "fair_value": 20.592879,
        "relative_strength": -16.218116,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.508429,
        "energy": 54.638583,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 25.040001,
        "volume": 83750305,
        "typical_volume": 136887490.15,
        "trend": 35.792304,
        "fair_value": 20.641725,
        "relative_strength": -21.343076,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -49.386659,
        "energy": 68.237231,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.862,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 29.1,
        "volume": 98835823,
        "typical_volume": 128449542.6,
        "trend": 35.739637,
        "fair_value": 20.731533,
        "relative_strength": -13.426565,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -36.813816,
        "energy": 66.524917,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}