{ "ticker": { "uuid": "880c79cf-37a1-40da-9f17-62d9e698ae7d", "symbol": "BIT", "name": "Bankers Ord", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.661, "architecture_energy": 40.063, "architecture_maturity": 64.885, "architecture_confidence": 88.927, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.28, "rotation_up": 37.92, "upward_expansion": 65.24, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 27.49, "downward_expansion": 17.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.417918, 3.427484, 3.38112, 3.301654 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.52, "trend_reference": 3.204203, "distance_from_trend": 0.098557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.579675, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.364513, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.57687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.160451, "excess_performance": 0.132177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098557, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.364513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052658, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.095769, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160451, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.838221, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41585, "relative_activity": 0.533732, "balance": 0.838221, "dry_up": 0.798146, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027576, "annualized_volatility": 0.148517, "from_high_reference": -0.009194, "from_low_reference": 0.302869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.204203, "fair_value_reference": 2.579675, "structural_low": 2.883635, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02451, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03895, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.074561, "worst_return": -0.050781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012392, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.013177, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020297, "worst_return": -0.016949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058196, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.04737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150686, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.170521, 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"green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.065171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064785, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01894, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.117309, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069021, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024691, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.971063, "volume": 255651, "typical_volume": 137629.1, "trend": 1.951968, "fair_value": 5.153968, "relative_strength": 3.259765, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.779419, "energy": 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61.96465, "activity_lines": [ 3.450872, 3.431352, 3.339424, 3.258656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.37, "volume": 85028, "typical_volume": 81842.85, "trend": 3.182282, "fair_value": 2.561347, "relative_strength": 5.934079, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.737168, "energy": 50.991751, "activity_lines": [ 3.420588, 3.425093, 3.351926, 3.271527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.32, "volume": 50885, "typical_volume": 79694.35, "trend": 3.190739, "fair_value": 2.56987, "relative_strength": 4.663023, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.710889, "energy": 31.811168, "activity_lines": [ 3.382489, 3.408288, 3.357824, 3.280412 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.52, "volume": 41585, "typical_volume": 77913.7, "trend": 3.204203, "fair_value": 2.579675, "relative_strength": 9.57687, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.660855, "energy": 40.063163, "activity_lines": [ 3.417918, 3.427484, 3.38112, 3.301654 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }