{ "ticker": { "uuid": "880fe61f-e9a1-4252-8787-5e9bd0426244", "symbol": "EBAY", "name": "eBay Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.532, "architecture_energy": 72.519, "architecture_maturity": 11.81, "architecture_confidence": 81.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.02, "rotation_up": 66.63, "upward_expansion": 86.32, "deceleration": 54.5, "rotation_down": 15.49, "downward_expansion": 15.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 1970.751986, 1943.692534, 1916.893488, 1855.170627 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1900.0, "trend_reference": 1771.352238, "distance_from_trend": 0.072627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1286.652855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.4767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.314643, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.273051, "excess_performance": 0.327718, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072627, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.4767, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080921, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083146, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038989, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.273051, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44, "relative_activity": 0.067032, "balance": 0.495126, "dry_up": 0.150061, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026704, "annualized_volatility": 0.291374, "from_high_reference": -0.075727, "from_low_reference": 0.35375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1771.352238, "fair_value_reference": 1286.652855, "structural_low": 1403.5084, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.019175, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.025596, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.17326, "worst_return": -0.175594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.107594, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.051095, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.233674, "worst_return": -0.246697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076954, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.067968, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.405563, "worst_return": -0.033596, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 15.879644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.306133, "energy": 65.97996, "activity_lines": [ 1923.333333, 1913.008407, 1875.389337, 1809.500061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2014.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1043.8, "trend": 1745.238188, "fair_value": 1271.143617, "relative_strength": 15.993049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.799099, "energy": 88.247229, "activity_lines": [ 1959.6, 1929.871242, 1894.22331, 1827.903021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2028.319946, "volume": 228, "typical_volume": 753.9, "trend": 1760.433878, "fair_value": 1279.309518, "relative_strength": 15.515204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.249625, "energy": 92.067465, "activity_lines": [ 1991.573315, 1948.198713, 1912.653159, 1846.166361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1900.0, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 656.4, "trend": 1771.352238, "fair_value": 1286.652855, "relative_strength": 8.314643, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.532289, "energy": 72.519284, "activity_lines": [ 1970.751986, 1943.692534, 1916.893488, 1855.170627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }