{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88113dda-9559-4ce7-b50d-e63c8fd4f78b", "symbol": "U6Z", "name": "Uranium Energy Corp.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.788, "architecture_energy": 54.326, "architecture_maturity": 28.418, "architecture_confidence": 91.34, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.08, "rotation_up": 19.05, "upward_expansion": 8.44, "deceleration": 48.12, "rotation_down": 63.8, "downward_expansion": 84.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.802333, 9.021818, 9.976714, 10.597531 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.8, "trend_reference": 11.591167, "distance_from_trend": -0.154529, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.699625, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.272789, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.669658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.257913, "excess_performance": -0.322553, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154529, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.272789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.541891, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.435777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.257913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.323159, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230493, "relative_activity": 0.988975, "balance": 0.323159, "dry_up": 0.815175, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127002, "annualized_volatility": 0.514337, "from_high_reference": -0.428505, "from_low_reference": 0.252396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.591167, "fair_value_reference": 7.699625, "structural_low": 7.825, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.032323, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.066201, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.549024, "worst_return": -0.226562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.209406, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.21566, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.695165, "worst_return": 0.001173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.514233, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.561255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.030254, "worst_return": 0.186972, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017328, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.427577, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.297222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169585, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.140527, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.189749, "energy": 74.254788, "activity_lines": [ 9.799333, 10.465818, 11.148267, 11.623174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.075, "volume": 245923, "typical_volume": 253643.5, "trend": 11.964567, "fair_value": 7.560554, "relative_strength": -21.616252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.381055, "energy": 74.962145, "activity_lines": [ 9.480333, 10.108, 10.910352, 11.432671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.92, "volume": 222314, "typical_volume": 253405.1, "trend": 11.858367, "fair_value": 7.592622, "relative_strength": -31.029661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.718145, "energy": 84.462201, "activity_lines": [ 8.92, 9.599909, 10.583662, 11.171731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.44, "volume": 162115, "typical_volume": 247752.8, "trend": 11.786167, "fair_value": 7.627452, "relative_strength": -27.375895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.150647, "energy": 79.509395, "activity_lines": [ 8.651667, 9.277273, 10.329495, 10.951191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.2, "volume": 145025, "typical_volume": 234558.25, "trend": 11.695567, "fair_value": 7.658728, "relative_strength": -30.937441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.039923, "energy": 80.723305, "activity_lines": [ 8.423333, 8.975, 10.068243, 10.719826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.8, "volume": 230493, "typical_volume": 233062.5, "trend": 11.591167, "fair_value": 7.699625, "relative_strength": -19.669658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.788176, "energy": 54.326015, "activity_lines": [ 8.802333, 9.021818, 9.976714, 10.597531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }