{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88141ead-5c4c-43ba-b231-a8b4db112155", "symbol": "CAR", "name": "Carclo plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.885, "architecture_energy": 34.142, "architecture_maturity": 90.34, "architecture_confidence": 91.528, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.96, "rotation_up": 27.46, "upward_expansion": 16.85, "deceleration": 43.97, "rotation_down": 40.22, "downward_expansion": 69.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.350533, 0.343918, 0.35636, 0.38399 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.377, "trend_reference": 0.42855, "distance_from_trend": -0.120289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.317366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.111264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.266537, "excess_performance": -0.317772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120289, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151442, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.266537, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.270588, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 829789, "relative_activity": 0.501078, "balance": 1.270588, "dry_up": 0.805203, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091355, "annualized_volatility": 0.632269, "from_high_reference": -0.555425, "from_low_reference": 0.277966 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.42855, "fair_value_reference": 0.317366, "structural_low": 0.295, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.042827, "positive_rate": 0.393939, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.059325, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.906355, "worst_return": -0.319697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.13202, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.129365, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.637168, "worst_return": -0.374242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.17526, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.132277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.097345, "worst_return": -0.282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.128571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159712, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-21", 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"typical_volume": 1652927.7, "trend": 0.448317, "fair_value": 0.313263, "relative_strength": -43.903605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.582957, "energy": 67.483965, "activity_lines": [ 0.3245, 0.336927, 0.365719, 0.400712 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.317, "volume": 785931, "typical_volume": 1598041.95, "trend": 0.440417, "fair_value": 0.314371, "relative_strength": -41.977909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.179821, "energy": 79.517836, "activity_lines": [ 0.320133, 0.331864, 0.358279, 0.39224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.371, "volume": 3019413, "typical_volume": 1662485.3, "trend": 0.43545, "fair_value": 0.315829, "relative_strength": -32.455335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.937272, "energy": 49.654047, "activity_lines": [ 0.335433, 0.3376, 0.356805, 0.387761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.377, "volume": 829789, "typical_volume": 1656008.1, "trend": 0.42855, "fair_value": 0.317366, "relative_strength": -31.111264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.884724, "energy": 34.142447, "activity_lines": [ 0.350533, 0.343918, 0.35636, 0.38399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }