{ "ticker": { "uuid": "881689fb-cecf-4401-9d60-4badba32d267", "symbol": "002238", "name": "Shenzhen Topway Video Communication Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.703, "architecture_energy": 41.952, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.087, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.94, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 18.88, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 41.15, "downward_expansion": 68.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.831333, 5.761455, 6.12481, 6.523376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.02, "trend_reference": 7.111, "distance_from_trend": -0.153424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.561476, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.29685, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.567227, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.279904, "excess_performance": -0.287304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.29685, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279904, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24935093, "relative_activity": 0.954739, "balance": 0.488194, "dry_up": 1.095882, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082418, "annualized_volatility": 0.303368, "from_high_reference": -0.415534, "from_low_reference": 0.142315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.111, "fair_value_reference": 8.561476, "structural_low": 5.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011407, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.963246, "worst_return": -0.172414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071243, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.011386, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.91653, "worst_return": -0.217855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060583, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.122921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.668091, "worst_return": -0.025424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.46, "volume": 26848398, "typical_volume": 27050647.25, "trend": 7.256667, "fair_value": 8.572658, "relative_strength": -31.609819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.458437, "energy": 66.566351, "activity_lines": [ 5.550667, 5.714, 6.233571, 6.677441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.03, "volume": 28133197, "typical_volume": 26502596.9, "trend": 7.181333, "fair_value": 8.567099, "relative_strength": -22.431773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.674505, "energy": 55.230765, "activity_lines": [ 5.709333, 5.730727, 6.175571, 6.598301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.02, "volume": 24935093, "typical_volume": 26117176.9, "trend": 7.111, "fair_value": 8.561476, "relative_strength": -25.567227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.702505, "energy": 41.951518, "activity_lines": [ 5.831333, 5.761455, 6.12481, 6.523376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }