{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8819cb4c-2e3f-4084-a430-7db0612a0bb5", "symbol": "VTOL", "name": "Bristow Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.321, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.349, "architecture_energy": 23.624, "architecture_maturity": 9.498, "architecture_confidence": 58.215, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.77, "rotation_up": 60.61, "upward_expansion": 41.79, "deceleration": 30.78, "rotation_down": 17.62, "downward_expansion": 16.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.278667, 44.244909, 44.024824, 44.345647 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.76, "trend_reference": 44.45118, "distance_from_trend": 0.029444, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.758592, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316509, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.776164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022889, "excess_performance": -0.102736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05012, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316509, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05359, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016081, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.854451, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1478917, "relative_activity": 1.351442, "balance": 0.854451, "dry_up": 0.880993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060901, "annualized_volatility": 0.315931, "from_high_reference": -0.089011, "from_low_reference": 0.314005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.45118, "fair_value_reference": 34.758592, "structural_low": 40.170926, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.000963, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003047, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.329163, "worst_return": -0.189441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063701, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.074039, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.324671, "worst_return": -0.084541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019319, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.008014, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.22714, "worst_return": -0.081, 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"fair_value": 34.464321, "relative_strength": -1.006368, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.858245, "energy": 8.253334, "activity_lines": [ 43.052667, 42.765455, 43.69865, 44.030888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.71, "volume": 750863, "typical_volume": 1085532.65, "trend": 43.982698, "fair_value": 34.566409, "relative_strength": 2.88315, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.415625, "energy": 11.739219, "activity_lines": [ 44.057333, 43.337818, 43.826882, 44.162337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.32, "volume": 809965, "typical_volume": 1078004.3, "trend": 44.255999, "fair_value": 34.658733, "relative_strength": 0.670497, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.327113, "energy": 14.527034, "activity_lines": [ 44.708, 43.774909, 43.911439, 44.248614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.76, "volume": 1478917, "typical_volume": 1094324.8, "trend": 44.45118, "fair_value": 34.758592, "relative_strength": -1.776164, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.348892, "energy": 23.624283, "activity_lines": [ 45.278667, 44.244909, 44.024824, 44.345647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }