{ "ticker": { "uuid": "881ec5d4-a52f-4a24-aa80-56294dfaa437", "symbol": "GIAX", "name": "NICHOLAS GLOBAL EQUITY AND INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.464, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.135, "architecture_energy": 19.054, "architecture_maturity": 48.83, "architecture_confidence": 85.922, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.33, "rotation_up": 15.4, "upward_expansion": 37.03, "deceleration": 84.88, "rotation_down": 43.69, "downward_expansion": 40.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.428228, 15.758608, 16.035731, 15.720347 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.035, "trend_reference": 15.35597, "distance_from_trend": 0.044219, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.136386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134307, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117708, "excess_performance": -0.007917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044219, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027686, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs 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decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.010002, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034255, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.010002, "worst_return": -0.010002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011987, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148158, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": 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15.731277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.166098, "volume": 619766, "typical_volume": 436996.95, "trend": 15.325551, "fair_value": 14.101932, "relative_strength": -7.337621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.791696, "energy": 19.764332, "activity_lines": [ 15.935953, 16.355844, 16.126276, 15.721652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.972233, "volume": 480011, "typical_volume": 445437.35, "trend": 15.324088, "fair_value": 14.110301, "relative_strength": -7.776244, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.608563, "energy": 19.891081, "activity_lines": [ 15.504277, 16.063873, 16.067604, 15.698857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.950631, "volume": 417367, "typical_volume": 442432.6, "trend": 15.328461, "fair_value": 14.118304, "relative_strength": -8.670317, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.925155, "energy": 29.347372, "activity_lines": [ 15.23459, 15.797128, 16.002546, 15.674763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.035, "volume": 430370, "typical_volume": 450674.05, "trend": 15.35597, "fair_value": 14.136386, "relative_strength": -5.183, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.135332, "energy": 19.053546, "activity_lines": [ 15.428228, 15.758608, 16.035731, 15.720347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }