{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88253f97-5fd7-4b92-9601-622e6160c265", "symbol": "AUSSD", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy ESG Enhanced US UCITS ETF UCITS ETF USD CAPITALISATION", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.482, "architecture_energy": 66.843, "architecture_maturity": 71.97, "architecture_confidence": 71.68, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.61, "rotation_up": 54.37, "upward_expansion": 82.34, "deceleration": 70.67, "rotation_down": 28.53, "downward_expansion": 11.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.77704, 14.700911, 14.512058, 14.190917 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.1718, "trend_reference": 13.829557, "distance_from_trend": 0.097056, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.164296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24724, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.298899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.148178, "excess_performance": 0.094867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062989, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072678, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980943, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71410, "relative_activity": 0.885702, "balance": 0.980943, "dry_up": 2.166724, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018586, "annualized_volatility": 0.122701, "from_high_reference": -0.002065, "from_low_reference": 0.422325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.829557, "fair_value_reference": 12.164296, "structural_low": 12.3704, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019899, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019741, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.025343, "worst_return": 0.012231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021551, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058537, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-23", "close": 10.6584, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 14.6357, "volume": 335570, "typical_volume": 63759.1, "trend": 13.689437, "fair_value": 12.086777, "relative_strength": 8.48355, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.299284, "energy": 61.813544, "activity_lines": [ 14.654747, 14.620044, 14.287247, 13.993733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.5636, "volume": 156419, "typical_volume": 70789.55, "trend": 13.729847, "fair_value": 12.1113, "relative_strength": 7.036661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.040692, "energy": 61.554804, "activity_lines": [ 14.632707, 14.616202, 14.352045, 14.050131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.5094, "volume": 135372, "typical_volume": 77425.45, "trend": 13.769177, "fair_value": 12.134811, "relative_strength": 4.55634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.534067, "energy": 50.930638, "activity_lines": [ 14.59788, 14.598309, 14.404311, 14.100425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.1718, "volume": 71410, "typical_volume": 80625.3, "trend": 13.829557, "fair_value": 12.164296, "relative_strength": 6.298899, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.481671, "energy": 66.842724, "activity_lines": [ 14.77704, 14.700911, 14.512058, 14.190917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }