{ "ticker": { "uuid": "882a4ac7-403c-4f50-a950-dce037b063c6", "symbol": "CAPL", "name": "Crossamerica Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.85, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.304, "architecture_energy": 11.489, "architecture_maturity": 34.084, "architecture_confidence": 75.177, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.89, "rotation_up": 18.07, "upward_expansion": 39.85, "deceleration": 83.7, "rotation_down": 34.36, "downward_expansion": 31.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.546005, 21.747263, 21.789326, 21.64859 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.41, "trend_reference": 21.494824, "distance_from_trend": -0.003946, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.930498, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130979, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.427958, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000378, "excess_performance": -0.126003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003946, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000378, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.013914, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183630, "relative_activity": 0.931385, "balance": 1.013914, "dry_up": 0.933208, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045796, "annualized_volatility": 0.283158, "from_high_reference": -0.082691, "from_low_reference": 0.175787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.494824, "fair_value_reference": 18.930498, "structural_low": 19.291892, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.022239, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.025655, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.141133, "worst_return": -0.104599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035109, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.008993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150356, "worst_return": -0.057787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104031, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.037812, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.205416, "worst_return": -0.040589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.156489, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.238278, "worst_return": 0.110793, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02339, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02786, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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18.805901, "relative_strength": -2.00349, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.913366, "energy": 18.824378, "activity_lines": [ 21.98253, 22.080145, 21.835647, 21.638636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.235362, "volume": 129363, "typical_volume": 192672.75, "trend": 21.381215, "fair_value": 18.845287, "relative_strength": -4.221885, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.652677, "energy": 12.140849, "activity_lines": [ 21.720717, 21.90432, 21.799294, 21.63218 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.674512, "volume": 275375, "typical_volume": 196653.7, "trend": 21.448938, "fair_value": 18.89144, "relative_strength": -3.133919, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.070149, "energy": 15.19013, "activity_lines": [ 21.657597, 21.840606, 21.808004, 21.651102 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.41, "volume": 183630, "typical_volume": 197157.9, "trend": 21.494824, "fair_value": 18.930498, "relative_strength": -7.427958, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.303524, "energy": 11.489124, "activity_lines": [ 21.546005, 21.747263, 21.789326, 21.64859 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }