{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8830e12d-8f2b-4d2d-a31d-66033108b22c", "symbol": "XUTC", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Information Technology UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.637, "architecture_energy": 48.63, "architecture_maturity": 66.314, "architecture_confidence": 60.062, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 42.38, "upward_expansion": 71.58, "deceleration": 74.02, "rotation_down": 28.99, "downward_expansion": 11.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 144.845333, 144.366182, 141.966572, 136.241489 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 150.779999, "trend_reference": 129.205763, "distance_from_trend": 0.166976, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.187315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.475526, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.348714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.326092, "excess_performance": 0.1552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.166976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.475526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051223, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.043487, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006895, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.326092, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.964591, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59343, "relative_activity": 2.21943, "balance": 1.964591, "dry_up": 1.726507, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041966, "annualized_volatility": 0.246412, "from_high_reference": -0.003634, "from_low_reference": 0.414049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 129.205763, "fair_value_reference": 102.187315, "structural_low": 106.629997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.016577, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.038873, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.101141, "worst_return": -0.126128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013233, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185457, "worst_return": -0.148163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.19507, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046335, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256083, "worst_return": 0.030229, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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122.597539, "fair_value": 98.288792, "relative_strength": 3.806605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.325336, "energy": 86.580609, "activity_lines": [ 144.780003, 140.381456, 130.619563, 126.53004 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 148.059998, "volume": 726, "typical_volume": 23760.5, "trend": 123.655598, "fair_value": 98.808293, "relative_strength": 4.554846, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.859229, "energy": 79.859207, "activity_lines": [ 145.995335, 142.687637, 132.894537, 128.172779 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 141.199997, "volume": 4685, "typical_volume": 23544.85, "trend": 124.340562, "fair_value": 99.271732, "relative_strength": 2.687802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.300698, "energy": 63.903042, "activity_lines": [ 144.489333, 143.158364, 134.365738, 129.304676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 143.580002, "volume": 1925, "typical_volume": 22206.45, "trend": 125.054276, "fair_value": 99.75644, "relative_strength": 1.287071, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.398351, "energy": 59.809927, "activity_lines": [ 143.924, 143.754364, 135.932667, 130.54593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 146.350006, "volume": 25097, "typical_volume": 23021.7, "trend": 125.970476, "fair_value": 100.255423, "relative_strength": 3.549625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.210734, "energy": 60.822735, "activity_lines": [ 144.585335, 144.580547, 137.613858, 131.919848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 141.089996, "volume": 26664, "typical_volume": 23788.45, "trend": 126.71833, "fair_value": 100.716828, "relative_strength": 1.220399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.440654, "energy": 45.678002, "activity_lines": [ 143.47, 144.093637, 138.64081, 132.895301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 143.75, "volume": 25356, "typical_volume": 23604.25, "trend": 127.510924, "fair_value": 101.188323, "relative_strength": 3.21095, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.271361, "energy": 44.594248, "activity_lines": [ 143.368, 144.005455, 139.783191, 133.994118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 139.75, "volume": 73290, "typical_volume": 25403.5, "trend": 128.184826, "fair_value": 101.641391, "relative_strength": -0.336772, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.282553, "energy": 35.275618, "activity_lines": [ 142.22, 143.149819, 140.410286, 134.783736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.779999, "volume": 59343, "typical_volume": 26737.95, "trend": 129.205763, "fair_value": 102.187315, "relative_strength": 4.348714, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.636586, "energy": 48.630359, "activity_lines": [ 144.845333, 144.366182, 141.966572, 136.241489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }