{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8830e74b-fbb7-4b09-8558-9e4ac731ce85", "symbol": "ECH", "name": "ISHARES MSCI CHILE ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.982, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.589, "architecture_energy": 12.263, "architecture_maturity": 24.373, "architecture_confidence": 63.061, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.29, "rotation_up": 21.49, "upward_expansion": 9.49, "deceleration": 53.7, "rotation_down": 36.59, "downward_expansion": 66.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.824, 39.713104, 39.959186, 40.165846 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.25, "trend_reference": 40.839974, "distance_from_trend": 0.01004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.154758, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.113167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07404, "excess_performance": -0.199665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013387, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.367943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05585, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07404, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2516877, "relative_activity": 0.98575, "balance": 0.781082, "dry_up": 0.66666, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051958, "annualized_volatility": 0.310317, "from_high_reference": -0.124456, "from_low_reference": 0.343957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.839974, "fair_value_reference": 30.154758, "structural_low": 37.105826, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.003114, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004004, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.151692, "worst_return": -0.189463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023392, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.039119, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.117669, "worst_return": -0.049137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073991, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074008, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162179, "worst_return": 0.049526, 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.343142, "energy": 17.230131, "activity_lines": [ 39.88637, 39.873271, 40.14837, 40.521706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.88, "volume": 1836972, "typical_volume": 3277518.35, "trend": 40.918489, "fair_value": 29.927538, "relative_strength": -5.512567, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.573616, "energy": 35.852125, "activity_lines": [ 39.487333, 39.686527, 40.028028, 40.390719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.61, "volume": 1099559, "typical_volume": 2881764.35, "trend": 40.885565, "fair_value": 29.990443, "relative_strength": -5.778949, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.648539, "energy": 42.520092, "activity_lines": [ 39.130667, 39.489299, 39.900804, 40.241784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.33, "volume": 1355216, "typical_volume": 2642669.25, "trend": 40.871471, "fair_value": 30.06557, "relative_strength": -5.22067, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.870454, "energy": 33.487353, "activity_lines": [ 39.150667, 39.423528, 39.841124, 40.141425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.25, "volume": 2516877, "typical_volume": 2553260.7, "trend": 40.839974, "fair_value": 30.154758, "relative_strength": -4.113167, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.589463, "energy": 12.263027, "activity_lines": [ 39.824, 39.713104, 39.959186, 40.165846 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }