{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88331ea7-41de-4b9f-a363-4c4184131556", "symbol": "LEO", "name": "BNY Mellon Strategic Municipals Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 85.452, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.889, "architecture_energy": 31.596, "architecture_maturity": 5.028, "architecture_confidence": 62.261, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.07, "rotation_up": 17.16, "upward_expansion": 19.74, "deceleration": 55.43, "rotation_down": 60.34, "downward_expansion": 42.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.232012, 6.295099, 6.314688, 6.30509 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.22, "trend_reference": 6.30097, "distance_from_trend": -0.01285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.747591, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.342356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024312, "excess_performance": -0.149936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082192, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054844, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059225, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.374539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1805014, "relative_activity": 1.591893, "balance": 1.374539, "dry_up": 1.20252, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019993, "annualized_volatility": 0.11903, "from_high_reference": -0.040805, "from_low_reference": 0.111453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.30097, "fair_value_reference": 5.747591, "structural_low": 5.93332, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.017595, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.004429, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.055467, "worst_return": -0.065756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048694, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026292, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071278, "worst_return": -0.117702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038207, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.082272, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.111849, "worst_return": -0.050567, "sufficient": 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0.017564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029578, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012379, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": 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6.397346, 6.377923, 6.336786, 6.320046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.38, "volume": 1185483, "typical_volume": 1009803.8, "trend": 6.300592, "fair_value": 5.730418, "relative_strength": -4.780698, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.120178, "energy": 37.025478, "activity_lines": [ 6.393333, 6.380577, 6.344064, 6.325648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.22, "volume": 1319225, "typical_volume": 1034430.95, "trend": 6.30529, "fair_value": 5.735797, "relative_strength": -6.544411, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.618732, "energy": 8.781541, "activity_lines": [ 6.334003, 6.355288, 6.336201, 6.320449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.15, "volume": 1144327, "typical_volume": 1067465.75, "trend": 6.302776, "fair_value": 5.741183, "relative_strength": -8.419971, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.6429, "energy": 24.708223, "activity_lines": [ 6.262012, 6.317826, 6.322063, 6.31043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.22, "volume": 1805014, "typical_volume": 1133878.95, "trend": 6.30097, "fair_value": 5.747591, "relative_strength": -10.342356, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.889041, "energy": 31.596453, "activity_lines": [ 6.232012, 6.295099, 6.314688, 6.30509 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }