{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88337bc0-b44a-43f2-b760-af125c77c907", "symbol": "SDRL", "name": "Seadrill Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.921, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.328, "architecture_energy": 10.984, "architecture_maturity": 30.236, "architecture_confidence": 83.26, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.12, "rotation_up": 44.93, "upward_expansion": 32.44, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 18.82, "downward_expansion": 21.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.802667, 42.619091, 44.102286, 44.370925 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.24, "trend_reference": 43.834667, "distance_from_trend": -0.013566, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.348333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.2774, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083709, "excess_performance": -0.041916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086523, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002774, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254792, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083709, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3243456, "relative_activity": 0.894525, "balance": 1.176253, "dry_up": 0.951016, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097171, "annualized_volatility": 0.34717, "from_high_reference": -0.22048, "from_low_reference": 0.543183 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.834667, "fair_value_reference": 39.348333, "structural_low": 37.31, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.046716, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.088078, "worst_return": 0.005355, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.015755, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.107105, "worst_return": -0.138614, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.184048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127097, "worst_return": -0.250825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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40.025333, 42.337636, 44.503905, 44.11428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.1, "volume": 3599384, "typical_volume": 3763101.65, "trend": 42.847333, "fair_value": 39.402308, "relative_strength": 5.336518, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.673799, "energy": 38.321041, "activity_lines": [ 40.912667, 42.069636, 44.321619, 44.155376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.93, "volume": 2669020, "typical_volume": 3636446.4, "trend": 43.246, "fair_value": 39.391667, "relative_strength": 9.96408, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.082513, "energy": 9.085596, "activity_lines": [ 42.486667, 42.229273, 44.317333, 44.289742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.84, "volume": 4281291, "typical_volume": 3701731.6, "trend": 43.575667, "fair_value": 39.378846, "relative_strength": 7.997392, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.87981, "energy": 8.465729, "activity_lines": [ 43.604667, 42.513818, 44.290619, 44.392581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.24, "volume": 3243456, "typical_volume": 3625897.25, "trend": 43.834667, "fair_value": 39.348333, "relative_strength": 0.2774, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.328413, "energy": 10.983785, "activity_lines": [ 43.802667, 42.619091, 44.102286, 44.370925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }