{ "ticker": { "uuid": "883dcbab-fc3c-46d8-ab44-c243e0c2f620", "symbol": "TCI", "name": "Transport Corporation of India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.641, "architecture_energy": 30.578, "architecture_maturity": 79.605, "architecture_confidence": 84.88, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.22, "rotation_up": 22.05, "upward_expansion": 2.98, "deceleration": 50.69, "rotation_down": 41.66, "downward_expansion": 71.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 923.529798, 927.291022, 931.496713, 944.0502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 916.349976, "trend_reference": 964.949278, "distance_from_trend": -0.050365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 986.779176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.45724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.131243, "excess_performance": -0.087534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046975, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027449, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.549256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160500, "relative_activity": 0.766122, "balance": 1.549256, "dry_up": 1.028818, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040948, "annualized_volatility": 0.238632, "from_high_reference": -0.25617, "from_low_reference": 0.055642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 964.949278, "fair_value_reference": 986.779176, "structural_low": 868.049988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.007875, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.001318, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.063574, "worst_return": -0.108568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017043, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019237, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112416, "worst_return": -0.076461, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.12563, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02859, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.142661, "worst_return": -0.103054, 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"relative_strength": -10.45724, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.640615, "energy": 30.57789, "activity_lines": [ 923.529798, 927.291022, 931.496713, 944.0502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }