{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8841a923-7b3c-4f3e-89b1-90219f40329f", "symbol": "3402", "name": "Global X Exchange Traded Funds Series OFC - Global X G2 Tech ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.662, "architecture_energy": 28.737, "architecture_maturity": 15.435, "architecture_confidence": 49.238, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.01, "rotation_up": 50.13, "upward_expansion": 60.33, "deceleration": 61.92, "rotation_down": 18.54, "downward_expansion": 17.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.570665, 71.96909, 72.285999, 71.731699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 74.639999, "trend_reference": 71.716, "distance_from_trend": 0.040772, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.179994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.458382, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.623731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030086, "excess_performance": 0.063667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040772, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.458382, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016237, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030086, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.414826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6350, "relative_activity": 1.651495, "balance": 0.414826, "dry_up": 1.219116, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028362, "annualized_volatility": 0.230336, "from_high_reference": -0.107177, "from_low_reference": 0.18251 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.716, "fair_value_reference": 51.179994, "structural_low": 63.119999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046257, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 7.2094, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 7.4723, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 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"close": 71.580002, "volume": 12400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.339996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3962.5, "trend": 71.838, "fair_value": 50.633244, "relative_strength": -0.231793, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.837036, "energy": 12.884327, "activity_lines": [ 71.307999, 71.708363, 71.919904, 71.569505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.459999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3962.5, "trend": 71.748, "fair_value": 50.890364, "relative_strength": -3.521729, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.245332, "energy": 7.057143, "activity_lines": [ 71.510665, 71.526908, 71.958666, 71.545118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.639999, "volume": 6350, "typical_volume": 3845.0, "trend": 71.716, "fair_value": 51.179994, "relative_strength": 1.623731, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.662003, "energy": 28.73711, "activity_lines": [ 72.570665, 71.96909, 72.285999, 71.731699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }