{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8846c8dc-ab0d-48c7-8155-e8170afdf1ef", "symbol": "002202", "name": "Goldwind Science&Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.429, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.276, "architecture_energy": 76.528, "architecture_maturity": 16.244, "architecture_confidence": 70.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.68, "rotation_up": 10.24, "upward_expansion": 17.75, "deceleration": 37.45, "rotation_down": 72.97, "downward_expansion": 91.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.335928, 20.376789, 22.070488, 23.36968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.799999, "trend_reference": 25.001563, "distance_from_trend": -0.128055, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.657016, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.722365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.846038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165071, "excess_performance": -0.172471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063353, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.722365, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.712077, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03846, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.337635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165071, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.974377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 782822212, "relative_activity": 1.149158, "balance": 0.974377, "dry_up": 0.861099, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116875, "annualized_volatility": 0.654301, "from_high_reference": -0.411288, "from_low_reference": 1.307179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.001563, "fair_value_reference": 12.657016, "structural_low": 16.449981, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.006784, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.005485, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.182724, "worst_return": -0.152297, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.013913, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.01487, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.531198, "worst_return": -0.169014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.044348, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.033372, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.709225, "worst_return": -0.269678, "sufficient": true }, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.144587, "volume": 866007457, "typical_volume": 856339612.25, "trend": 24.966923, "fair_value": 12.445478, "relative_strength": 2.757118, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.316941, "energy": 29.520798, "activity_lines": [ 22.969023, 23.204069, 24.386575, 25.019952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.846128, "volume": 637059635, "typical_volume": 833756904.65, "trend": 24.962461, "fair_value": 12.487928, "relative_strength": -14.545801, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.341798, "energy": 69.613766, "activity_lines": [ 21.00122, 21.922498, 23.559265, 24.49603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.450251, "volume": 510296608, "typical_volume": 795661134.1, "trend": 25.004136, "fair_value": 12.534128, "relative_strength": -12.352093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.019174, "energy": 83.33857, "activity_lines": [ 19.540382, 20.962474, 22.844746, 24.011371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.212831, "volume": 416192614, "typical_volume": 731220089.9, "trend": 24.954897, "fair_value": 12.58392, "relative_strength": -7.779336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.557567, "energy": 86.172346, "activity_lines": [ 18.669721, 20.280006, 22.25533, 23.573222 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 782822212, "typical_volume": 681213784.1, "trend": 25.001563, "fair_value": 12.657016, "relative_strength": 3.846038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.276039, "energy": 76.527889, "activity_lines": [ 19.335928, 20.376789, 22.070488, 23.36968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }