{ "ticker": { "uuid": "884bcc58-a13e-4aa4-bbd2-3b7e68dfb15a", "symbol": "002005", "name": "Elec-Tech International Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.316, "architecture_energy": 77.656, "architecture_maturity": 23.104, "architecture_confidence": 85.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.9, "rotation_up": 10.69, "upward_expansion": 17.61, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 79.19, "downward_expansion": 95.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.262667, 2.360364, 2.554286, 2.651677 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.24, "trend_reference": 2.761333, "distance_from_trend": -0.188798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.879295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.860568, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.232877, "excess_performance": -0.240276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.188798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.232877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.442382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109844487, "relative_activity": 1.877747, "balance": 0.442382, "dry_up": 1.681182, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092033, "annualized_volatility": 0.332037, "from_high_reference": -0.306502, "from_low_reference": 0.037037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.761333, "fair_value_reference": 1.879295, "structural_low": 2.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.013986, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.030775, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.204545, "worst_return": -0.182482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025078, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.04224, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.670732, "worst_return": -0.286957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006564, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.050172, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.157143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.221557, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141479, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", 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-13.93704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.666903, "energy": 84.874982, "activity_lines": [ 2.415333, 2.558727, 2.695429, 2.755484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.27, "volume": 89575020, "typical_volume": 53857621.35, "trend": 2.779, "fair_value": 1.869359, "relative_strength": -15.623121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.541475, "energy": 83.610503, "activity_lines": [ 2.354, 2.485091, 2.647333, 2.721892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.22, "volume": 82217508, "typical_volume": 55349396.75, "trend": 2.769333, "fair_value": 1.873974, "relative_strength": -15.791588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.093939, "energy": 85.773736, "activity_lines": [ 2.300667, 2.414, 2.598048, 2.685828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.24, "volume": 109844487, "typical_volume": 58498011.0, "trend": 2.761333, "fair_value": 1.879295, "relative_strength": -18.860568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.315737, "energy": 77.655948, "activity_lines": [ 2.262667, 2.360364, 2.554286, 2.651677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }