{ "ticker": { "uuid": "884cf200-975c-4794-9716-89ea6c0b7fab", "symbol": "TBPH", "name": "Theravance Biopharma Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.066, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.929, "architecture_energy": 9.714, "architecture_maturity": 19.165, "architecture_confidence": 74.371, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.49, "rotation_up": 17.11, "upward_expansion": 25.66, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 29.87, "downward_expansion": 45.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.897333, 16.918, 16.767524, 16.691075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.93, "trend_reference": 17.032, "distance_from_trend": -0.005989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.799455, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.434812, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.695745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17334, "excess_performance": -0.360793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005989, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026446, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.434812, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17334, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766919, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4253510, "relative_activity": 1.576963, "balance": 0.766919, "dry_up": 1.194888, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031428, "annualized_volatility": 0.48355, "from_high_reference": -0.19496, "from_low_reference": 0.498893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.032, "fair_value_reference": 11.799455, "structural_low": 13.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009278, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.034117, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.16895, "worst_return": -0.149425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.021664, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.010294, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.515284, "worst_return": -0.104799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003949, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.0782, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.642539, "worst_return": -0.162236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.168531, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.100877, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.619094, "worst_return": -0.146654, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104953, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056136, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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20.770686, "activity_lines": [ 17.004, 16.779273, 16.53981, 16.765419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.93, "volume": 2704160, "typical_volume": 3017330.9, "trend": 17.211333, "fair_value": 11.66516, "relative_strength": -6.23449, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.027803, "energy": 21.164573, "activity_lines": [ 17.0, 16.827273, 16.606857, 16.743269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.86, "volume": 4069133, "typical_volume": 2751445.15, "trend": 17.145333, "fair_value": 11.710545, "relative_strength": -5.463998, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.12669, "energy": 12.19942, "activity_lines": [ 16.953333, 16.864, 16.673524, 16.720602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.86, "volume": 1864981, "typical_volume": 2670498.4, "trend": 17.102333, "fair_value": 11.75484, "relative_strength": -6.309296, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.689824, "energy": 9.56941, "activity_lines": [ 16.888, 16.889091, 16.724524, 16.702194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.93, "volume": 4253510, "typical_volume": 2697278.9, "trend": 17.032, "fair_value": 11.799455, "relative_strength": -10.695745, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.929477, "energy": 9.714458, "activity_lines": [ 16.897333, 16.918, 16.767524, 16.691075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }