{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88525296-3e9e-42f0-ac23-76a9b06556ea", "symbol": "STIP", "name": "ISHARES TRUST 0-5 YEAR TIPS BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.796, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.211, "architecture_energy": 64.729, "architecture_maturity": 2.407, "architecture_confidence": 90.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.29, "rotation_up": 16.58, "upward_expansion": 14.4, "deceleration": 40.08, "rotation_down": 62.5, "downward_expansion": 87.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.627193, 100.718171, 101.012994, 101.144594 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 100.69, "trend_reference": 101.20532, "distance_from_trend": -0.005092, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.888541, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.118409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003122, "excess_performance": -0.128747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001399, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050073, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.227201, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4936818, "relative_activity": 0.951948, "balance": 1.227201, "dry_up": 0.801739, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003472, "annualized_volatility": 0.020581, "from_high_reference": -0.016516, "from_low_reference": 0.013757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.20532, "fair_value_reference": 95.888541, 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"energy": 63.015161, "activity_lines": [ 100.721423, 100.944726, 101.220015, 101.260497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 100.491556, "volume": 2903311, "typical_volume": 5572267.1, "trend": 101.198225, "fair_value": 95.730244, "relative_strength": -7.829403, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.047606, "energy": 70.217958, "activity_lines": [ 100.614501, 100.834244, 101.135752, 101.214919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.620608, "volume": 5077741, "typical_volume": 5379931.25, "trend": 101.202416, "fair_value": 95.808705, "relative_strength": -8.391965, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.139304, "energy": 75.799215, "activity_lines": [ 100.590827, 100.764787, 101.069031, 101.177653 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.69, "volume": 4936818, "typical_volume": 5186015.25, "trend": 101.20532, "fair_value": 95.888541, "relative_strength": -11.118409, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.211266, "energy": 64.729408, "activity_lines": [ 100.627193, 100.718171, 101.012994, 101.144594 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }