{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8857bee9-5942-4e29-bbdc-6a59ba0b54e3", "symbol": "TRZ", "name": "Transat A.T. Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.219, "architecture_energy": 66.711, "architecture_maturity": 17.441, "architecture_confidence": 94.139, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.07, "rotation_up": 16.55, "upward_expansion": 15.0, "deceleration": 38.6, "rotation_down": 62.93, "downward_expansion": 88.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.328667, 2.346364, 2.437714, 2.472301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.41, "trend_reference": 2.518333, "distance_from_trend": -0.043018, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.633846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.368003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090566, "excess_performance": -0.210987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043018, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.084988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090566, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.750652, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 309600, "relative_activity": 1.034673, "balance": 0.750652, "dry_up": 0.795806, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044686, "annualized_volatility": 0.351773, "from_high_reference": -0.258462, "from_low_reference": 0.14218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.518333, "fair_value_reference": 2.633846, "structural_low": 2.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.005495, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011602, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.201389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031964, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.030019, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.74, "worst_return": -0.350694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084926, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.004505, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.36858, "worst_return": -0.322917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.097116, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.158826, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.42029, "worst_return": -0.420382, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.322917, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.235897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.36, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095406, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114583, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193694, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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-59.53014, "energy": 60.193261, "activity_lines": [ 2.388667, 2.444909, 2.513095, 2.533548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.29, "volume": 228400, "typical_volume": 333035.0, "trend": 2.556, "fair_value": 2.68109, "relative_strength": -18.68585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.133041, "energy": 70.101355, "activity_lines": [ 2.354667, 2.405273, 2.490286, 2.515656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.29, "volume": 225200, "typical_volume": 314745.0, "trend": 2.544667, "fair_value": 2.664551, "relative_strength": -18.334166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.706888, "energy": 77.122065, "activity_lines": [ 2.327333, 2.372909, 2.469286, 2.498495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.26, "volume": 189300, "typical_volume": 291415.0, "trend": 2.531333, "fair_value": 2.649167, "relative_strength": -18.553008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.298424, "energy": 80.667733, "activity_lines": [ 2.298667, 2.342545, 2.446286, 2.480129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.41, "volume": 309600, "typical_volume": 299225.0, "trend": 2.518333, "fair_value": 2.633846, "relative_strength": -15.368003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.219498, "energy": 66.710779, "activity_lines": [ 2.328667, 2.346364, 2.437714, 2.472301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }