{ "ticker": { "uuid": "885f2b16-4356-470e-9943-d20e2fcab958", "symbol": "SPA", "name": "Siam Wellness Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.755, "architecture_energy": 13.566, "architecture_maturity": 19.138, "architecture_confidence": 65.157, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.98, "rotation_up": 41.51, "upward_expansion": 34.83, "deceleration": 40.56, "rotation_down": 23.73, "downward_expansion": 14.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.230667, 3.218545, 3.15638, 3.167569 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.22, "trend_reference": 3.173468, "distance_from_trend": 0.014663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.235115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.794562, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013789, "excess_performance": -0.178536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042424, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097946, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039679, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013789, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.362198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8078200, "relative_activity": 1.191631, "balance": 0.362198, "dry_up": 1.772202, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053989, "annualized_volatility": 0.341056, "from_high_reference": -0.184993, "from_low_reference": 0.278934 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.173468, "fair_value_reference": 5.235115, "structural_low": 2.92, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002315, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006903, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.103448, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.135605, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.124865, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043103, "worst_return": -0.284722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006452, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.433962, "worst_return": -0.569745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"close": 3.16, "volume": 22958100, "typical_volume": 6408665.0, "trend": 3.155616, "fair_value": 5.292405, "relative_strength": -14.306844, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.626845, "energy": 28.916281, "activity_lines": [ 3.218667, 3.175273, 3.131253, 3.154783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.3, "volume": 7351000, "typical_volume": 6556935.0, "trend": 3.166198, "fair_value": 5.264419, "relative_strength": -8.82566, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.169124, "energy": 26.631157, "activity_lines": [ 3.241333, 3.206909, 3.147644, 3.164098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.22, "volume": 8078200, "typical_volume": 6779110.0, "trend": 3.173468, "fair_value": 5.235115, "relative_strength": -9.794562, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.755462, "energy": 13.56574, "activity_lines": [ 3.230667, 3.218545, 3.15638, 3.167569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }