{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8860795b-a05d-429e-b4f1-427400eed015", "symbol": "GEL", "name": "Genesis Energy LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.625, "architecture_energy": 22.42, "architecture_maturity": 66.901, "architecture_confidence": 75.457, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.22, "rotation_up": 27.36, "upward_expansion": 20.38, "deceleration": 46.64, "rotation_down": 24.57, "downward_expansion": 56.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.959576, 14.721623, 15.13537, 15.648172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.08, "trend_reference": 16.203967, "distance_from_trend": -0.069364, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.137599, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.063, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113666, "excess_performance": -0.23929, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069364, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014001, "read": "Falling" 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13.572695, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.090371, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.090909, "median_excess_return": 0.071123, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.206067, "worst_return": -0.151104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084439, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.07722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256372, "worst_return": 0.035515, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.30368, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.259814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.416173, "worst_return": 0.192443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -17.463766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.584562, "energy": 69.108866, "activity_lines": [ 14.274792, 14.582254, 15.382578, 15.872362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.826319, "volume": 749165, "typical_volume": 1466158.05, "trend": 16.228207, "fair_value": 13.044294, "relative_strength": -14.537587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.207676, "energy": 47.365625, "activity_lines": [ 14.467671, 14.563431, 15.26341, 15.780975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.31, "volume": 1080350, "typical_volume": 1460744.1, "trend": 16.220246, "fair_value": 13.095899, "relative_strength": -12.251029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.232451, "energy": 30.989512, "activity_lines": [ 14.798022, 14.655527, 15.204966, 15.721736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.08, "volume": 1235645, "typical_volume": 1432811.7, "trend": 16.203967, "fair_value": 13.137599, "relative_strength": -16.063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.62533, "energy": 22.420381, "activity_lines": [ 14.959576, 14.721623, 15.13537, 15.648172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }