{ "ticker": { "uuid": "886316e2-56f6-4705-b740-55c150fff3d6", "symbol": "0057", "name": "Fubon MSCI Taiwan ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.355, "architecture_energy": 33.235, "architecture_maturity": 69.712, "architecture_confidence": 90.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.11, "rotation_up": 29.24, "upward_expansion": 59.18, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 27.85, "downward_expansion": 22.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 304.780001, 307.264547, 300.336192, 285.282474 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 306.149994, "trend_reference": 264.173334, "distance_from_trend": 0.158898, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 157.682052, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.941565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.056105, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.42263, "excess_performance": 0.043318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158898, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18459, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.941565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030561, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024001, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.42263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.951366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118055, "relative_activity": 0.959528, "balance": 2.951366, "dry_up": 0.970334, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0499, "annualized_volatility": 0.290184, "from_high_reference": -0.054217, "from_low_reference": 1.051256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 264.173334, "fair_value_reference": 157.682052, "structural_low": 209.850006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00174, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.000599, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.19921, "worst_return": -0.026917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047234, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306509, "worst_return": -0.069695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080558, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.021456, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.264706, "worst_return": -0.157976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015315, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062891, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114599, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027358, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.979051, "energy": 65.773282, "activity_lines": [ 314.293335, 309.640911, 290.322144, 272.823119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 295.649994, "volume": 105225, "typical_volume": 143624.1, "trend": 252.541667, "fair_value": 153.655449, "relative_strength": 3.629515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.244454, "energy": 59.962983, "activity_lines": [ 308.736666, 308.060909, 292.615239, 275.840861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 303.700012, "volume": 156090, "typical_volume": 133928.4, "trend": 256.573334, "fair_value": 154.981731, "relative_strength": 3.904836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.632668, "energy": 51.742929, "activity_lines": [ 306.290002, 307.81182, 295.408573, 279.141399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 306.100006, "volume": 98168, "typical_volume": 121386.8, "trend": 260.490001, "fair_value": 156.33718, "relative_strength": 5.828954, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.917438, "energy": 39.064684, "activity_lines": [ 305.543337, 307.685457, 298.062859, 282.336668 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 306.149994, "volume": 118055, "typical_volume": 123034.4, "trend": 264.173334, "fair_value": 157.682052, "relative_strength": 3.056105, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.354784, "energy": 33.234563, "activity_lines": [ 304.780001, 307.264547, 300.336192, 285.282474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }