{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8869aee2-efcc-4ded-be4a-2866bf1f7716", "symbol": "00909", "name": "Cathay Global Digital Payment Services\u00a0ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.439, "architecture_energy": 15.829, "architecture_maturity": 66.842, "architecture_confidence": 72.295, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.1, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 48.35, "deceleration": 84.95, "rotation_down": 36.9, "downward_expansion": 28.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.146667, 45.955455, 46.42376, 44.722335 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 44.290001, "trend_reference": 42.622409, "distance_from_trend": 0.039125, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.853582, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.483574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.382195, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101228, "excess_performance": -0.278084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039125, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.483574, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070289, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101228, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580873, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2537773, "relative_activity": 0.19849, "balance": 0.580873, "dry_up": 0.361455, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069542, "annualized_volatility": 0.511952, "from_high_reference": -0.151533, "from_low_reference": 0.385989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.622409, "fair_value_reference": 29.853582, "structural_low": 31.955521, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035738, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.031249, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270171, "worst_return": -0.09354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028634, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06561, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.242325, "worst_return": -0.252881, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.24381, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.05742, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.248891, "worst_return": 0.101577, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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13637680.9, "trend": 42.112943, "fair_value": 29.504161, "relative_strength": -15.067418, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.374147, "energy": 26.628558, "activity_lines": [ 45.695333, 47.010546, 46.328627, 44.375655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.560001, "volume": 6008386, "typical_volume": 13243322.2, "trend": 42.363518, "fair_value": 29.681906, "relative_strength": -16.524742, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.768725, "energy": 20.878937, "activity_lines": [ 45.566, 46.567273, 46.457694, 44.598046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.290001, "volume": 2537773, "typical_volume": 12785399.9, "trend": 42.622409, "fair_value": 29.853582, "relative_strength": -20.382195, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.438573, "energy": 15.828673, "activity_lines": [ 45.146667, 45.955455, 46.42376, 44.722335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }