{ "ticker": { "uuid": "886d5c78-56c9-4152-b5a7-a2caee3a44eb", "symbol": "8176", "name": "Z-Com, Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.825, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.121, "architecture_energy": 46.341, "architecture_maturity": 25.965, "architecture_confidence": 92.074, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.88, "rotation_up": 18.31, "upward_expansion": 8.24, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 55.19, "downward_expansion": 81.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.936, 10.038, 10.138048, 10.355247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.1, "trend_reference": 10.626667, "distance_from_trend": -0.049561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.755769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.208201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.360197, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077626, "excess_performance": -0.518998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.208201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00482, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.333602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035661, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077626, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.152832, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 678990, "relative_activity": 0.658786, "balance": 1.152832, "dry_up": 0.50195, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052551, "annualized_volatility": 0.32129, "from_high_reference": -0.298611, "from_low_reference": 0.055381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.626667, "fair_value_reference": 12.755769, "structural_low": 9.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.037863, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010509, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.103774, "worst_return": -0.098214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024476, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.065867, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.075, "worst_return": -0.205674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.133005, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.087169, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.339286, "worst_return": -0.280142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049631, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.053319, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.160714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222628, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.183486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037915, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009852, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024155, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 11.0, "volume": 869000, "typical_volume": 1972000.0, "trend": 11.387, "fair_value": 9.605573, "relative_strength": -5.621156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.323936, 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"typical_volume": 1472445.7, "trend": 10.738333, "fair_value": 12.813141, "relative_strength": -32.826392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.474083, "energy": 30.962813, "activity_lines": [ 10.213333, 10.22, 10.369048, 10.553763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.99, "volume": 411350, "typical_volume": 1460535.85, "trend": 10.713, "fair_value": 12.799295, "relative_strength": -33.269751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.365515, "energy": 30.237138, "activity_lines": [ 10.136667, 10.18, 10.308095, 10.505484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.83, "volume": 667483, "typical_volume": 1469286.8, "trend": 10.680667, "fair_value": 12.782179, "relative_strength": -32.745056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.488861, "energy": 45.953729, "activity_lines": [ 10.017333, 10.113818, 10.236238, 10.448516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.78, "volume": 311553, "typical_volume": 1077559.0, "trend": 10.645, "fair_value": 12.765705, "relative_strength": -33.958476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.431801, "energy": 57.699142, "activity_lines": [ 9.892667, 10.042545, 10.164476, 10.390409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.1, "volume": 678990, "typical_volume": 1030668.65, "trend": 10.626667, "fair_value": 12.755769, "relative_strength": -33.360197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.121091, "energy": 46.341256, "activity_lines": [ 9.936, 10.038, 10.138048, 10.355247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }