{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88744297-00fe-4bd1-9004-e861d443fda4", "symbol": "5246", "name": "ProbeLeader Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.182, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.283, "architecture_energy": 66.064, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.762, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.53, "rotation_up": 17.81, "upward_expansion": 23.48, "deceleration": 43.25, "rotation_down": 70.9, "downward_expansion": 65.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.333333, 106.572727, 139.357143, 146.737944 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 81.5, "trend_reference": 138.62993, "distance_from_trend": -0.412104, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.4769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.647233, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.516881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.656504, "excess_performance": 0.215132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.412104, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.285754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.647233, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.22929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.311768, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.656504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2197743, "relative_activity": 0.479284, "balance": 0.67753, "dry_up": 0.558084, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.494479, "annualized_volatility": 1.727029, "from_high_reference": -0.789406, "from_low_reference": 3.630682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 138.62993, "fair_value_reference": 49.4769, "structural_low": 47.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.209302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153675, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.184573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.836105, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.402516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.357859, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 3.089744, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.473623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", 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2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.234273, "energy": 15.422616, "activity_lines": [ 183.733333, 183.818182, 185.008095, 159.63759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 148.5, "volume": 3676290, "typical_volume": 5763290.55, "trend": 127.31493, "fair_value": 47.704583, "relative_strength": 32.114778, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.641487, "energy": 8.859839, "activity_lines": [ 172.133333, 175.954545, 183.403333, 161.253831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 130.5, "volume": 1641568, "typical_volume": 5755832.8, "trend": 130.67993, "fair_value": 48.225178, "relative_strength": 17.71314, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.006757, "energy": 8.954032, "activity_lines": [ 156.133333, 166.409091, 179.611429, 161.459319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 90.800003, "volume": 4327149, "typical_volume": 5722055.6, "trend": 132.353264, "fair_value": 48.496312, "relative_strength": -13.82005, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.890749, "energy": 37.408692, "activity_lines": [ 130.466668, 151.663637, 171.661905, 158.88642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.099998, "volume": 2500051, "typical_volume": 5418437.8, "trend": 134.123264, "fair_value": 48.760703, "relative_strength": -15.390772, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.161727, "energy": 56.198743, "activity_lines": [ 112.18, 139.158182, 163.708095, 156.289436 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.5, "volume": 3045346, "typical_volume": 5045477.3, "trend": 135.53993, "fair_value": 48.969838, "relative_strength": -23.927432, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.91214, "energy": 63.181058, "activity_lines": [ 97.52, 126.196364, 154.877619, 152.958902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.0, "volume": 2493174, "typical_volume": 4819548.55, "trend": 137.38493, "fair_value": 49.268522, "relative_strength": -15.479943, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.648473, "energy": 65.036171, "activity_lines": [ 92.893333, 116.907273, 147.64, 150.343423 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 81.5, "volume": 2197743, "typical_volume": 4585471.15, "trend": 138.62993, "fair_value": 49.4769, "relative_strength": -30.516881, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.28318, "energy": 66.064045, "activity_lines": [ 87.333333, 106.572727, 139.357143, 146.737944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }