{ "ticker": { "uuid": "888785c9-0a12-4b4e-91c0-6f83d61a5159", "symbol": "XLBP", "name": "Invesco Materials S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.57, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.589, "architecture_energy": 21.536, "architecture_maturity": 27.502, "architecture_confidence": 87.16, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.26, "rotation_up": 31.2, "upward_expansion": 54.66, "deceleration": 87.56, "rotation_down": 36.25, "downward_expansion": 23.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 46706.666667, 46878.590909, 46795.880952, 46666.795699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 47997.5, "trend_reference": 46439.5, "distance_from_trend": 0.033549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41780.294872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148807, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.403069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.043764, "excess_performance": -0.007471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033549, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042875, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148807, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021323, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004031, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.376756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 391, "relative_activity": 0.56753, "balance": 2.376756, "dry_up": 0.469192, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024164, "annualized_volatility": 0.174066, "from_high_reference": -0.015553, "from_low_reference": 0.212058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46439.5, "fair_value_reference": 41780.294872, "structural_low": 42440.066406, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028388, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.018216, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.063726, "worst_return": -0.053439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031859, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.007886, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.113562, "worst_return": -0.109308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020799, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.140778, "worst_return": -0.064604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057591, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.012528, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.168194, "worst_return": 0.025775, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01458, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002679, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064884, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037522, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012819, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", 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"up", "direction": 30.586423, "energy": 20.248063, "activity_lines": [ 46923.666667, 46957.409091, 46738.011905, 46567.16129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46557.5, "volume": 169, "typical_volume": 679.15, "trend": 46175.916667, "fair_value": 41675.884615, "relative_strength": -1.194311, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.776249, "energy": 14.989639, "activity_lines": [ 46715.166667, 46910.5, 46745.047619, 46602.241935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45482.5, "volume": 540, "typical_volume": 693.65, "trend": 46303.5, "fair_value": 41718.102564, "relative_strength": -4.571854, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.413629, "energy": 21.790977, "activity_lines": [ 46216.666667, 46663.727273, 46650.440476, 46557.505376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47997.5, "volume": 391, "typical_volume": 688.95, "trend": 46439.5, "fair_value": 41780.294872, "relative_strength": 0.403069, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.58912, "energy": 21.535793, "activity_lines": [ 46706.666667, 46878.590909, 46795.880952, 46666.795699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }