{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8890e615-e212-40a3-aead-02fc71209443", "symbol": "VERT-B", "name": "Vertiseit AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 73.068, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.417, "architecture_energy": 29.691, "architecture_maturity": 21.52, "architecture_confidence": 51.646, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.29, "rotation_up": 46.63, "upward_expansion": 47.52, "deceleration": 34.05, "rotation_down": 26.26, "downward_expansion": 17.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.88, 57.265454, 56.708571, 56.56 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 59.400002, "trend_reference": 56.896667, "distance_from_trend": 0.043998, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.619872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197101, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.434107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053191, "excess_performance": -0.008303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043998, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040367, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197101, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144341, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053191, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.127871, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28657, "relative_activity": 0.62729, "balance": 4.127871, "dry_up": 0.534495, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065009, "annualized_volatility": 0.379525, "from_high_reference": -0.246193, "from_low_reference": 0.282937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.896667, "fair_value_reference": 49.619872, "structural_low": 46.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.03595, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.027651, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.119048, "worst_return": -0.242894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054854, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001796, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.349481, "worst_return": -0.173127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.062706, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.057624, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.089965, "worst_return": -0.154545, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241509, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.207613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032609, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006431, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139073, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007092, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042105, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.25, "volume": 92961, "typical_volume": 51914.1, "trend": 28.855, "fair_value": 27.468269, "relative_strength": -33.40119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 55.799999, "volume": 9886, "typical_volume": 46587.55, "trend": 57.863333, "fair_value": 48.691026, "relative_strength": -19.314884, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.677293, "energy": 14.892904, "activity_lines": [ 56.04, 56.152727, 56.019047, 56.455484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.799999, "volume": 22064, "typical_volume": 46836.85, "trend": 57.81, "fair_value": 48.927564, "relative_strength": -13.476804, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.52031, "energy": 5.321511, "activity_lines": [ 56.919999, 56.736363, 56.284285, 56.515914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.599998, "volume": 13653, "typical_volume": 46495.65, "trend": 57.403333, "fair_value": 49.144872, "relative_strength": -17.308491, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.484677, "energy": 8.813911, "activity_lines": [ 56.946665, 56.807272, 56.326666, 56.437849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.0, "volume": 33297, "typical_volume": 45633.9, "trend": 57.103333, "fair_value": 49.36859, "relative_strength": -17.151691, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.109315, "energy": 11.266832, "activity_lines": [ 57.013332, 56.810908, 56.400476, 56.411828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.400002, "volume": 28657, "typical_volume": 45683.8, "trend": 56.896667, "fair_value": 49.619872, "relative_strength": -14.434107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.417306, "energy": 29.691487, "activity_lines": [ 57.88, 57.265454, 56.708571, 56.56 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }