{ "ticker": { "uuid": "889f3b56-3480-45bc-abc7-88e42a6990a5", "symbol": "SJNK", "name": "State Street SPDR Bloomberg U.S. High Yield Corporate Scored UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.813, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.415, "architecture_energy": 68.709, "architecture_maturity": 5.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.091, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.06, "rotation_up": 9.26, "upward_expansion": 14.97, "deceleration": 37.96, "rotation_down": 74.29, "downward_expansion": 90.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.608404, 39.8474, 40.174114, 40.227445 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.799999, "trend_reference": 40.303931, "distance_from_trend": -0.012503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.222975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.701224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014912, "excess_performance": -0.066148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012503, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049905, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014912, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.092236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8927, "relative_activity": 0.354461, "balance": 0.092236, "dry_up": 0.202772, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012996, "annualized_volatility": 0.059191, "from_high_reference": -0.046478, "from_low_reference": 0.013116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.303931, "fair_value_reference": 37.222975, "structural_low": 39.315594, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.003937, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003155, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.052094, "worst_return": -0.066377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008269, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017828, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.038322, "worst_return": -0.057086, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018832, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033819, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.002348, "worst_return": -0.040011, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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40.476863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.624634, "volume": 2077, "typical_volume": 26587.75, "trend": 40.394998, "fair_value": 37.030947, "relative_strength": -6.75244, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.34841, "energy": 32.401352, "activity_lines": [ 40.154976, 40.432062, 40.453779, 40.426134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.680164, "volume": 6582, "typical_volume": 26731.4, "trend": 40.381246, "fair_value": 37.079305, "relative_strength": -7.270195, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.17168, "energy": 58.342817, "activity_lines": [ 39.907447, 40.272069, 40.386633, 40.380016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.445972, "volume": 3351, "typical_volume": 26707.9, "trend": 40.353658, "fair_value": 37.125696, "relative_strength": -8.714122, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.348622, "energy": 79.486484, "activity_lines": [ 39.66951, 40.088538, 40.301314, 40.319676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.450798, "volume": 1567, "typical_volume": 26064.25, "trend": 40.326713, "fair_value": 37.173042, "relative_strength": -9.518965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.39462, "energy": 81.680934, "activity_lines": [ 39.531117, 39.926776, 40.220177, 40.261427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.799999, "volume": 8927, "typical_volume": 25184.7, "trend": 40.303931, "fair_value": 37.222975, "relative_strength": -8.701224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.414673, "energy": 68.709192, "activity_lines": [ 39.608404, 39.8474, 40.174114, 40.227445 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }