{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88a2b1dc-d5f4-4e39-b0cc-7a67d617b376", "symbol": "INSP", "name": "Insplorion AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.142, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.575, "architecture_energy": 7.541, "architecture_maturity": 13.11, "architecture_confidence": 68.108, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.68, "rotation_up": 22.34, "upward_expansion": 39.87, "deceleration": 78.07, "rotation_down": 34.94, "downward_expansion": 38.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.118867, 0.121655, 0.1276, 0.121785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.1175, "trend_reference": 0.113287, "distance_from_trend": 0.037192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.004312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.883004, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -41.834438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.169154, "excess_performance": 0.10766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037192, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.883004, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004437, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.418344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120946, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.169154, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.379798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 311633, "relative_activity": 0.079951, "balance": 2.379798, "dry_up": 0.295536, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.295843, "annualized_volatility": 1.842638, "from_high_reference": -0.716184, "from_low_reference": 2.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.113287, "fair_value_reference": 1.004312, "structural_low": 0.0376, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.032721, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.547445, "worst_return": -0.505764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.175849, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.162451, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.724771, "worst_return": -0.758568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.491192, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.475813, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.363914, "worst_return": -0.686996, 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.696246, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.657382, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069498, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.221088, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004274, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.253476, "volume": 135225, "typical_volume": 94078.4, "trend": 2.018783, "fair_value": 10.124147, "relative_strength": -50.581441, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"fair_value": 1.042314, "relative_strength": -48.598047, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.737214, "energy": 16.51661, "activity_lines": [ 0.1227, 0.130782, 0.129376, 0.12026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.117, "volume": 139738, "typical_volume": 5419719.85, "trend": 0.113503, "fair_value": 1.034237, "relative_strength": -45.248683, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.491986, "energy": 13.983664, "activity_lines": [ 0.118533, 0.127727, 0.129229, 0.120523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.125, "volume": 2103885, "typical_volume": 5228831.2, "trend": 0.11377, "fair_value": 1.024389, "relative_strength": -40.508252, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.576044, "energy": 12.483185, "activity_lines": [ 0.119633, 0.126336, 0.129478, 0.121265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.118, "volume": 2052513, "typical_volume": 5047420.8, "trend": 0.11367, "fair_value": 1.01416, "relative_strength": -42.463788, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.896509, "energy": 9.871567, "activity_lines": [ 0.1189, 0.123918, 0.128686, 0.121538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1175, "volume": 311633, "typical_volume": 3897807.3, "trend": 0.113287, "fair_value": 1.004312, "relative_strength": -41.834438, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.575004, "energy": 7.540583, "activity_lines": [ 0.118867, 0.121655, 0.1276, 0.121785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }