{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88a6bc8c-99c8-417c-9792-ddf2a95c9117", "symbol": "UB39", "name": "UBS MSCI EMU Socially Responsible UCITS ETF EUR dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.888, "architecture_energy": 40.038, "architecture_maturity": 45.438, "architecture_confidence": 87.255, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.48, "rotation_up": 39.09, "upward_expansion": 60.1, "deceleration": 86.34, "rotation_down": 27.05, "downward_expansion": 21.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 12539.2, 12547.381818, 12414.12381, 12209.693706 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12872.0, "trend_reference": 12002.247624, "distance_from_trend": 0.072466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10657.807724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207753, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.029798, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.091138, "excess_performance": 0.039903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023303, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207753, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059971, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000298, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091138, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.669875, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384, "relative_activity": 0.2674, "balance": 4.669875, "dry_up": 0.936075, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022235, "annualized_volatility": 0.174277, "from_high_reference": -0.061497, "from_low_reference": 0.221716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12002.247624, "fair_value_reference": 10657.807724, "structural_low": 10536.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013135, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.009079, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082495, "worst_return": -0.102092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028545, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.011847, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.11647, "worst_return": -0.020394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.00048, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.056054, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127681, "worst_return": -0.074226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040497, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007533, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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"energy": 40.243136, "activity_lines": [ 12494.533333, 12518.163636, 12263.866667, 12093.907518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12349.0, "volume": 4048, "typical_volume": 1563.85, "trend": 11950.071354, "fair_value": 10614.754019, "relative_strength": -2.73586, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.563457, "energy": 31.912344, "activity_lines": [ 12418.133333, 12496.436364, 12299.538095, 12120.933329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12424.0, "volume": 505, "typical_volume": 1480.45, "trend": 11970.142806, "fair_value": 10633.924823, "relative_strength": -3.233491, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.846192, "energy": 25.815349, "activity_lines": [ 12397.066667, 12482.109091, 12338.242857, 12151.509371 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12872.0, "volume": 384, "typical_volume": 1436.05, "trend": 12002.247624, "fair_value": 10657.807724, "relative_strength": 0.029798, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.88842, "energy": 40.037946, "activity_lines": [ 12539.2, 12547.381818, 12414.12381, 12209.693706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }