{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88aba6d2-662a-41b7-991d-402581c8e0b3", "symbol": "USVL", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI USA Value UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.146, "architecture_energy": 67.561, "architecture_maturity": 50.557, "architecture_confidence": 87.41, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.02, "rotation_up": 56.54, "upward_expansion": 85.24, "deceleration": 67.27, "rotation_down": 28.98, "downward_expansion": 11.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.511333, 97.866, 95.961405, 92.676592 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 100.989998, "trend_reference": 88.667167, "distance_from_trend": 0.138979, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 66.664776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.514893, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.479643, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.227991, "excess_performance": 0.176756, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138979, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092027, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.514893, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063422, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144796, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.227991, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.605858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4479, "relative_activity": 0.473966, "balance": 2.605858, "dry_up": 0.903699, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026474, "annualized_volatility": 0.15213, "from_high_reference": -0.007664, "from_low_reference": 0.567073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.667167, "fair_value_reference": 66.664776, "structural_low": 76.720001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.014153, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": 0.007743, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.116969, "worst_return": -0.05112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.02018, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.005145, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.149741, "worst_return": -0.097424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063321, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.022092, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.243191, "worst_return": -0.089663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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9421.85, "trend": 87.965, "fair_value": 66.354423, "relative_strength": 11.421878, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.764991, "energy": 52.577106, "activity_lines": [ 97.134668, 97.269274, 95.049358, 91.836269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.989998, "volume": 4479, "typical_volume": 9450.05, "trend": 88.667167, "fair_value": 66.664776, "relative_strength": 14.479643, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.145889, "energy": 67.560853, "activity_lines": [ 98.511333, 97.866, 95.961405, 92.676592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }