{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88ae4955-e90e-4272-bed6-0a1e55d04869", "symbol": "BP", "name": "BP PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.976, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.114, "architecture_energy": 30.735, "architecture_maturity": 31.597, "architecture_confidence": 49.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.37, "rotation_up": 63.4, "upward_expansion": 61.76, "deceleration": 59.22, "rotation_down": 7.01, "downward_expansion": 17.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.899333, 41.521636, 42.026025, 42.163987 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.63, "trend_reference": 41.454761, "distance_from_trend": 0.004227, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.067358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258945, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.698757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093284, "excess_performance": -0.032341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004227, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258945, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.335684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44081138, "relative_activity": 0.844217, "balance": 1.335684, "dry_up": 0.761249, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065519, "annualized_volatility": 0.319283, "from_high_reference": -0.127852, "from_low_reference": 0.321266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.454761, "fair_value_reference": 33.067358, "structural_low": 35.286263, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.050228, "positive_rate": 0.916667, "directional_follow_through": 0.916667, "median_excess_return": 0.04024, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161121, "worst_return": -0.018873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050074, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.030669, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.237105, "worst_return": -0.005025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.259529, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.109657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.275788, "worst_return": -0.010486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 7.700274, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.752163, "energy": 11.222317, "activity_lines": [ 41.082, 40.674727, 41.946292, 41.852634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.22, "volume": 46256415, "typical_volume": 55803563.65, "trend": 41.182785, "fair_value": 33.005315, "relative_strength": 9.495293, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.649624, "energy": 37.568798, "activity_lines": [ 42.858667, 41.432364, 42.164313, 42.135134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.63, "volume": 44081138, "typical_volume": 52215385.45, "trend": 41.454761, "fair_value": 33.067358, "relative_strength": -2.698757, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.113673, "energy": 30.734831, "activity_lines": [ 42.899333, 41.521636, 42.026025, 42.163987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }