{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88b8eb25-5b77-46c6-a9c7-0879f2bfd15a", "symbol": "ELCI34", "name": "The Est\u00e9e Lauder Companies Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.651, "architecture_energy": 14.638, "architecture_maturity": 30.616, "architecture_confidence": 70.581, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.36, "rotation_up": 20.18, "upward_expansion": 14.01, "deceleration": 63.13, "rotation_down": 34.35, "downward_expansion": 57.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.748667, 17.785273, 17.632796, 17.898473 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.17, "trend_reference": 19.04322, "distance_from_trend": -0.045855, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.669579, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.069642, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165226, "excess_performance": -0.108178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073225, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095197, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165226, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 903, "relative_activity": 0.271742, "balance": 0.186662, "dry_up": 0.099233, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067897, "annualized_volatility": 0.504115, "from_high_reference": -0.356032, "from_low_reference": 0.256309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.04322, "fair_value_reference": 21.669579, "structural_low": 14.463005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.06478, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075122, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.175493, "worst_return": -0.233671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.000974, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318151, "worst_return": -0.28659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.237611, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.314404, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.014954, "worst_return": -0.402405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -32.24535, "energy": 25.48595, "activity_lines": [ 17.864, 17.99536, 17.519718, 18.388617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.620001, "volume": 108, "typical_volume": 3460.9, "trend": 19.691048, "fair_value": 21.973089, "relative_strength": -18.266132, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.088055, "energy": 28.22204, "activity_lines": [ 17.720667, 17.938021, 17.512598, 18.2387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 115, "typical_volume": 3397.6, "trend": 19.429988, "fair_value": 21.86279, "relative_strength": -20.6428, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.065883, "energy": 28.981279, "activity_lines": [ 17.454667, 17.761319, 17.473766, 18.065084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.9, "volume": 193, "typical_volume": 3364.5, "trend": 19.222483, "fair_value": 21.764672, "relative_strength": -17.580237, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.7147, "energy": 23.00352, "activity_lines": [ 17.578667, 17.745637, 17.536495, 17.966375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.17, "volume": 903, "typical_volume": 3323.0, "trend": 19.04322, "fair_value": 21.669579, "relative_strength": -13.069642, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.651432, "energy": 14.637931, "activity_lines": [ 17.748667, 17.785273, 17.632796, 17.898473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }