{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88b9afce-1874-4122-a785-ffb4c01d5c59", "symbol": "GCTS", "name": "GCT Semiconductor Holding Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.483, "architecture_energy": 16.651, "architecture_maturity": 71.705, "architecture_confidence": 95.072, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.55, "rotation_up": 23.17, "upward_expansion": 47.01, "deceleration": 84.64, "rotation_down": 35.06, "downward_expansion": 27.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.18, 2.310909, 2.332524, 2.105484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.55, "trend_reference": 1.8005, "distance_from_trend": 0.416273, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.589556, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015275, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 42.114699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.056452, "excess_performance": 0.930827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.416273, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.260119, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015275, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.329982, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.421147, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27849, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.056452, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.486391, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14905793, "relative_activity": 0.672819, "balance": 1.486391, "dry_up": 0.45275, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.290516, "annualized_volatility": 1.277741, "from_high_reference": -0.351145, "from_low_reference": 1.670157 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.8005, "fair_value_reference": 2.589556, "structural_low": 1.04, "invalidation": "A renewed 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"directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.158621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.232558, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 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1.682167, "fair_value": 2.605375, "relative_strength": 42.529105, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.838112, "energy": 30.279045, "activity_lines": [ 2.580667, 2.672182, 2.287762, 2.003527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.1, "volume": 8579560, "typical_volume": 21413013.45, "trend": 1.709167, "fair_value": 2.601198, "relative_strength": 23.339653, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.853604, "energy": 21.314397, "activity_lines": [ 2.405333, 2.578727, 2.304048, 2.030484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.95, "volume": 7276531, "typical_volume": 21414331.95, "trend": 1.7335, "fair_value": 2.595861, "relative_strength": 15.017129, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.566745, "energy": 18.222486, "activity_lines": [ 2.208, 2.450727, 2.301286, 2.046022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.86, "volume": 9359449, "typical_volume": 21697488.3, "trend": 1.754833, "fair_value": 2.589878, "relative_strength": 8.222478, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.028104, "energy": 16.491561, "activity_lines": [ 2.062667, 2.304182, 2.28581, 2.054183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.55, "volume": 14905793, "typical_volume": 22154235.05, "trend": 1.8005, "fair_value": 2.589556, "relative_strength": 42.114699, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.482593, "energy": 16.651189, "activity_lines": [ 2.18, 2.310909, 2.332524, 2.105484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }