{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88bdaac3-fb24-4ef3-8df3-977f2f70bbc9", "symbol": "300272", "name": "Canature Health Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.82, "architecture_energy": 50.96, "architecture_maturity": 77.09, "architecture_confidence": 66.868, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.31, "rotation_up": 27.25, "upward_expansion": 20.9, "deceleration": 66.44, "rotation_down": 45.58, "downward_expansion": 70.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.524667, 5.506541, 5.976658, 6.421823 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.74, "trend_reference": 6.919765, "distance_from_trend": -0.170492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.015992, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045876, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.833801, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220109, "excess_performance": -0.227508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077761, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045876, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309187, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.662102, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36978449, "relative_activity": 0.624723, "balance": 0.662102, "dry_up": 0.708325, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083609, "annualized_volatility": 0.357841, "from_high_reference": -0.367981, "from_low_reference": 0.129921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.919765, "fair_value_reference": 6.015992, "structural_low": 5.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.027235, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.020529, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.121514, "worst_return": -0.086572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.137565, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.085475, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.369975, "worst_return": -0.075534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.150182, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.03658, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.228193, "worst_return": -0.083481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109141, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022124, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241559, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.338, 5.496241, 6.171067, 6.594932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.6, "volume": 35226200, "typical_volume": 68063825.65, "trend": 6.977765, "fair_value": 6.012754, "relative_strength": -18.30748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.278504, "energy": 61.723939, "activity_lines": [ 5.421333, 5.477748, 6.062006, 6.501679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.74, "volume": 36978449, "typical_volume": 59191781.2, "trend": 6.919765, "fair_value": 6.015992, "relative_strength": -19.833801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.819527, "energy": 50.960158, "activity_lines": [ 5.524667, 5.506541, 5.976658, 6.421823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }