{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88c18f9b-0508-450f-8b4d-3656113af9be", "symbol": "HDEF", "name": "DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS MSCI EAFE HIGH DIV YLD RQ ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.733, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.226, "architecture_energy": 87.602, "architecture_maturity": 12.954, "architecture_confidence": 67.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.36, "rotation_up": 85.43, "upward_expansion": 97.71, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 8.45, "downward_expansion": 19.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.687333, 33.162941, 32.681958, 32.440166 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 34.12, "trend_reference": 32.130344, "distance_from_trend": 0.061925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.833763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320752, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.407634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.05557, "excess_performance": -0.070055, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061925, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032442, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023445, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.844467, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 597049, "relative_activity": 0.77454, "balance": 1.844467, "dry_up": 0.709471, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020343, "annualized_volatility": 0.127866, "from_high_reference": -0.002922, "from_low_reference": 0.222648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.130344, "fair_value_reference": 25.833763, "structural_low": 30.489762, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.005064, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.013481, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.075941, "worst_return": -0.079077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.034436, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.009897, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.098337, "worst_return": -0.084064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.086466, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.077314, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.136159, "worst_return": -0.112802, "sufficient": true }, { 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928479.4, "trend": 31.778738, "fair_value": 25.580809, "relative_strength": 0.061502, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.465725, "energy": 70.22225, "activity_lines": [ 32.735333, 32.395685, 32.201208, 32.076117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.29, "volume": 511858, "typical_volume": 866693.05, "trend": 31.880376, "fair_value": 25.659116, "relative_strength": 0.672864, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.199273, "energy": 75.211688, "activity_lines": [ 33.011333, 32.590754, 32.326203, 32.173618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.89, "volume": 521587, "typical_volume": 819780.8, "trend": 31.99812, "fair_value": 25.745565, "relative_strength": 1.34145, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.624341, "energy": 83.617711, "activity_lines": [ 33.371333, 32.869604, 32.499568, 32.303271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.12, "volume": 597049, "typical_volume": 770843.75, "trend": 32.130344, "fair_value": 25.833763, "relative_strength": -1.407634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.226371, "energy": 87.602483, "activity_lines": [ 33.687333, 33.162941, 32.681958, 32.440166 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }