{ "ticker": { "uuid": "88c5f492-8cbb-4e69-bd42-43d2c49bee7f", "symbol": "ZETH", "name": "Bitwise Physical Ethereum ETC", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.943, "architecture_energy": 30.152, "architecture_maturity": 83.865, "architecture_confidence": 74.108, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.03, "rotation_up": 28.93, "upward_expansion": 23.99, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 24.27, "downward_expansion": 60.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.807333, 14.287109, 15.115305, 15.728262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.967, "trend_reference": 16.832233, "distance_from_trend": -0.110813, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.052205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.350735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.496048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.062394, "excess_performance": -0.115706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110813, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173455, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.350735, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119659, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062394, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.244477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5348, "relative_activity": 4.426236, "balance": 2.244477, "dry_up": 1.435754, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058431, "annualized_volatility": 0.510227, "from_high_reference": -0.607536, "from_low_reference": 0.17333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.832233, "fair_value_reference": 23.052205, "structural_low": 12.756, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.012036, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.019726, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.420226, "worst_return": -0.360738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.325473, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.267559, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.458499, "worst_return": -0.292579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.212075, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000894, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.368516, "worst_return": -0.420968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213294, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188917, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.447825, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.532447, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": 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23.090558, "relative_strength": -40.371549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.242689, "energy": 73.222064, "activity_lines": [ 13.495667, 14.173545, 15.672905, 16.462486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.672, "volume": 613, "typical_volume": 1040.65, "trend": 17.806933, "fair_value": 23.079442, "relative_strength": -38.726032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.956658, "energy": 65.464496, "activity_lines": [ 13.914733, 14.074909, 15.512433, 16.241796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.672, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1002.35, "trend": 17.490133, "fair_value": 23.068244, "relative_strength": -38.162223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.874095, "energy": 52.819801, "activity_lines": [ 14.2494, 14.046782, 15.3547, 16.039542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.864, "volume": 978, "typical_volume": 1049.1, "trend": 17.1657, "fair_value": 23.060244, "relative_strength": -37.469609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.683572, "energy": 34.702158, "activity_lines": [ 14.580933, 14.124073, 15.224562, 15.870114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.967, "volume": 5348, "typical_volume": 1208.25, "trend": 16.832233, "fair_value": 23.052205, "relative_strength": -37.496048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.942708, "energy": 30.151729, "activity_lines": [ 14.807333, 14.287109, 15.115305, 15.728262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }